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CD Gerena vs AD Ceuta

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Tercera Division - Group 10 2015/2016
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AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 10 2015/2016 game between CD Gerena and AD Ceuta finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Gerena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
CD Gerena
15%
Draws
42%
AD Ceuta
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CD Gerena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AD Ceuta come out ahead of CD Gerena on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans CD Gerena's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 10 2015/2016 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
CD Gerena Clean Sheet 20%
AD Ceuta Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Gerena AD Ceuta
Matches Played 31 41
Wins 10 19
Draws 6 7
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 1.29 1.44
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.49
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 12, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
AD Ceuta vs CD Gerena
1:0
Oct 30, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
CD Gerena vs AD Ceuta
3:1
Apr 23, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
CD Gerena vs AD Ceuta
3:2
Apr 20, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
AD Ceuta vs CD Gerena
1:0
Feb 14, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
AD Ceuta vs CD Gerena
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Gerena 85 / 100
AD Ceuta 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Gerena AD Ceuta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Gerena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Gerena found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).

AD Ceuta has conceded goals in 71% of their last 41 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

AD Ceuta's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS AD Ceuta
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Gerena

(Home)
14 May
Coria C.F.
4 : 1
CD Gerena
07 May
CD Gerena
0 : 1
CD Alcala
28 Apr
Los Barrios
2 : 1
CD Gerena
23 Apr
CD Gerena
4 : 1
Castilleja CF
08 Apr
Atletico Espeleno
3 : 1
CD Gerena
Page 1 of 7

AD Ceuta

(Away)
05 Sept
AD Ceuta
0 : 2
Celta Vigo B
30 Aug
Mallorca
3 : 0
AD Ceuta
22 Aug
AD Ceuta
0 : 2
Las Palmas
15 Aug
FC Andorra
5 : 1
AD Ceuta
07 Aug
AD Ceuta
2 : 1
Malaga
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cordoba B 40 27 4 9 90:42 85
2 Sanluqueno 40 23 10 7 71:34 79
3 CD San Fernando 40 21 12 7 69:30 75
4 CD Alcala 40 21 10 9 59:33 73
5 CD Gerena 40 16 13 11 65:46 61
6 AD Ceuta 40 14 16 10 47:43 58
7 Arcos CF 40 15 13 12 44:43 58
8 Sevilla C 40 13 16 11 43:44 55
9 Castilleja CF 40 15 10 15 49:54 55
10 Los Barrios 40 16 7 17 54:56 55
11 CD Guadalcacin 40 13 15 12 42:50 54
12 Ecija 40 14 10 16 58:54 52
13 CD Utrera 40 14 10 16 70:76 52
14 San Roque de Cadiz 40 12 14 14 46:52 50
15 Lebrijana 40 13 10 17 45:59 49
16 Cabecense 40 12 13 15 49:57 49
17 Coria C.F. 40 10 18 12 38:39 48
18 CMD San Juan 40 14 6 20 42:53 48
19 Conil 40 10 9 21 41:65 39
20 Rotena 40 9 9 22 43:73 36
21 Ciudad de Lucena 40 2 7 31 19:81 13
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2015/2016 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2015/2016 (Main)