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Celje vs AEK

Europe Europe

Conference League 2025/2026 Stadion Z'dezele, Celje
0 - 4
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Varga B.
Assist: Marin R.
30'
Hrka D.
33' Event
Koita A.
Assist: Jovic L.

AI Match Summary

AEK in this Conference League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Celje
35%
Draws
41%
AEK
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: AEK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Medium Confidence
  • AEK have won more games recently than Celje.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • AEK arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor AEK, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Celje have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Celje Clean Sheet 16%
AEK Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celje AEK
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 14 16
Draws 5 9
Losses 8 4
Goals Scored 1.5 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Conference League
AEK vs Celje
0:2
Mar 12, 2026 Conference League
Celje vs AEK
0:4
Oct 2, 2025 Conference League
Celje vs AEK
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Celje Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

AEK Compare

Top Goalscorer Varga B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Koita A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.43
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celje 31 / 100
AEK 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celje AEK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Celje scored in 89% of their last 27 games.

H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Celje remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

AEK let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Celje VS AEK
1.5 Goals Scored 1.57
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.86
63% Over 1.5 71%
38% Over 2.5 71%
38% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Celje

(Home)
04 Aug
Ararat-Armenia
2 : 1
Celje
01 Aug
Celje
1 : 1
Maribor
28 Jul
Celje
3 : 2
KF Egnatia
22 Jul
KF Egnatia
3 : 3
Celje
17 Jul
Celje
2 : 2
Mura
Page 1 of 6

AEK

(Away)
02 Aug
AEK
3 : 0
St. Truiden
29 Jul
AEK
1 : 2
Samsunspor
26 Jul
Zwolle
2 : 3
AEK
18 Jul
Groningen
1 : 2
AEK
15 Jul
Vitesse
0 : 0
AEK
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
KuPS 0
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar -
TBD -
Noah 1
AZ Alkmaar 4
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
Zrinjski 1
Crystal Palace 3
AEK Larnaca -
TBD -
Jagiellonia 4
Fiorentina 5
Rakow Czestochowa -
TBD -
Shkendija Tetovo 0
Samsunspor 5
Rayo Vallecano -
TBD -
Drita 4
Celje 6
AEK -
TBD -
Sigma Olomouc 3
Lausanne 2
Mainz -
TBD -
Omonia 1
Rijeka 4
Strasbourg -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar 4
AZ Alkmaar 6
Sparta Prague 1
Crystal Palace 2
AEK Larnaca 1
Fiorentina 4
Rakow Czestochowa 2
Samsunspor 2
Rayo Vallecano 3
Celje 2
AEK 4
Sigma Olomouc 0
Mainz 2
Rijeka 2
Strasbourg 3
Quarter-finals
Shakhtar 5
AZ Alkmaar 2
Crystal Palace 4
Fiorentina 2
Rayo Vallecano 4
AEK 3
Mainz 2
Strasbourg 4
Semi-finals
Shakhtar 2
Crystal Palace 5
Rayo Vallecano 2
Strasbourg 0
Final
Crystal Palace 1
Rayo Vallecano 0