Sport Picks
Celta Vigo vs Lyon
Europe
Europa League 2025/2026 Estadio de Balaídos, Vigo 
Match Events
20'
20'
Iglesias B.
25'
25'
Rueda J.
Assist: Swedberg W.
46'
46'
Sub
Aspas I. In: Jutgla F.
Out: Aspas I.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
35%
42%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lyon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Celta Vigo haven't matched Lyon's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Lyon arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Celta Vigo, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Celta Vigo here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Celta Vigo Clean Sheet 19%
Lyon Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Celta Vigo | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 13 |
| Draws | 10 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.37 | 1.73 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.37 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 19, 2026 Europa League
Lyon vs Celta Vigo
0:2
Mar 12, 2026 Europa League
Celta Vigo vs Lyon
1:1
Jul 29, 2023 Club Friendly
Celta Vigo vs Lyon
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Celta Vigo Compare
Top Goalscorer Rueda J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Lyon Compare
Top Goalscorer Endrick
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Celta Vigo 32 / 100
Lyon 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Celta Vigo Lyon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lyon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Celta Vigo's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Lyon has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Celta Vigo stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Celta Vigo VS Lyon
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Celta Vigo
(Home) 19 Sept
Celta Vigo
5 : 0 Racing Santander
16 Sept
Omonia
1 : 0 Celta Vigo
13 Sept
Celta Vigo
1 : 1 Malaga
07 Sept
Getafe
1 : 1 Celta Vigo
03 Sept
Real Sociedad
0 : 0 Celta Vigo
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Celta Vigo
5 : 0 Racing Santander
13 Sept
Celta Vigo
1 : 1 Malaga
30 Aug
Celta Vigo
0 : 2 Ath Bilbao
27 Aug
Celta Vigo
1 : 2 Osasuna
29 Jul
Celta Vigo
2 : 2 Academico Viseu
Page 1 of 3
Lyon
(Away) 19 Sept
Lyon
4 : 0 Rennes
16 Sept
Anderlecht
1 : 2 Lyon
12 Sept
Paris FC
0 : 0 Lyon
04 Sept
Lyon
3 : 1 Auxerre
29 Aug
Lyon
1 : 1 Le Havre
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Anderlecht
1 : 2 Lyon
12 Sept
Paris FC
0 : 0 Lyon
22 Aug
Toulouse
0 : 2 Lyon
18 Aug
Fenerbahce
1 : 1 Lyon
04 Aug
Sparta Prague
2 : 1 Lyon
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3
