Sport Picks

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Celta Vigo vs Sevilla

Spain Spain

LaLiga 2025/2026 Estadio de Balaídos
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Celta Vigo play Sevilla in the LaLiga 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Celta Vigo averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Sevilla averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. In past meetings, Celta Vigo won 4, Sevilla won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 23, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Celta Vigo and 1.50 for Sevilla. This points to a Celta Vigo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Celta Vigo
15%
Draws
31%
Sevilla
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Celta Vigo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Celta Vigo picked up more points recently compared to Sevilla.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Celta Vigo Clean Sheet 16%
Sevilla Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celta Vigo Sevilla
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 15 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.47 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 LaLiga
Celta Vigo vs Sevilla
1:0
Jan 12, 2026 LaLiga
Sevilla vs Celta Vigo
0:1
May 10, 2025 LaLiga
Celta Vigo vs Sevilla
3:2
Dec 14, 2024 LaLiga
Sevilla vs Celta Vigo
1:0
Mar 17, 2024 LaLiga
Sevilla vs Celta Vigo
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Celta Vigo Compare

Top Goalscorer Moriba I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sevilla Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celta Vigo 52 / 100
Sevilla 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celta Vigo Sevilla

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Celta Vigo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Celta Vigo & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.2%
2.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Celta Vigo attacking → ← attacking Sevilla

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Celta Vigo scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Sevilla let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Celta Vigo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Sevilla lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

52 Points in last 5 33
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Barcelona38311695:3694
2Real Madrid38275677:3586
3Villarreal382261072:4672
4Atl. Madrid382161162:4469
5Betis381515859:4860
6Celta Vigo3814121253:4854
7Getafe381561732:3851
8Rayo Vallecano3812141241:4450
9Valencia3813101546:5549
10Real Sociedad3811131459:6146
11Espanyol3812101643:5546
12Ath Bilbao381361943:5845
13Sevilla381271946:6043
14Alaves3811101744:5643
15Elche3810131549:5743
16Levante381191847:6142
17Osasuna381191844:5042
18Mallorca381191847:5742
19Girona389141539:5541
20Real Oviedo386112126:6029