Sport Picks
Match Events
13'
13'
Hirato T.
18'
18'
Thiago Andrade
Assist: Shibayama M.
28'
28'
Sub
Sakai K. In: Okugawa M.
Out: Sakai K.
AI Match Summary
The J1 League 2026 game between Cerezo Osaka and Kyoto finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cerezo Osaka.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Cerezo Osaka
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Kyoto haven't matched Cerezo Osaka's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Cerezo Osaka's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Cerezo Osaka here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Cerezo Osaka Clean Sheet 20%
Kyoto Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cerezo Osaka | Kyoto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 13 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2.63 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 2.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.63 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.38 | 2.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto
3:0
Mar 14, 2026 J1 League
Kyoto vs Cerezo Osaka
1:2
Sep 28, 2025 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto
1:2
May 21, 2025 J.League Cup
Kyoto vs Cerezo Osaka
1:4
May 3, 2025 J1 League
Kyoto vs Cerezo Osaka
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cerezo Osaka Compare
Top Goalscorer Thiago Andrade
1 Goals Assists Leader Homma S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31
Kyoto Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cerezo Osaka 85 / 100
Kyoto 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cerezo Osaka Kyoto
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Cerezo Osaka found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).
Kyoto has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.
Cerezo Osaka has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Cerezo Osaka VS Kyoto
2.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Cerezo Osaka
(Home) 15 Jul
Cerezo Osaka
1 : 0 Tochigi City
06 Jun
FC Tokyo
1 : 3 Cerezo Osaka
30 May
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 2 FC Tokyo
24 May
Okayama
2 : 3 Cerezo Osaka
17 May
Cerezo Osaka
6 : 1 Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6
15 Jul
Cerezo Osaka
1 : 0 Tochigi City
30 May
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 2 FC Tokyo
17 May
Cerezo Osaka
6 : 1 Nagoya Grampus
09 May
Cerezo Osaka
3 : 2 V-Varen Nagasaki
03 May
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 1 Avispa Fukuoka
Page 1 of 3
Kyoto
(Away) 17 Jul
Kyoto
1 : 4 Shonan Bellmare
06 Jun
Kashiwa Reysol
0 : 1 Kyoto
30 May
Kyoto
2 : 6 Kashiwa Reysol
23 May
Kyoto
1 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
17 May
Kyoto
0 : 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Page 1 of 6
06 Jun
Kashiwa Reysol
0 : 1 Kyoto
13 May
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0 Kyoto
10 May
Nagoya Grampus
3 : 0 Kyoto
06 May
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 1 Kyoto
18 Apr
Cerezo Osaka
3 : 0 Kyoto
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 31:11 | 45 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 32:18 | 37 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 28:22 | 37 |
| 4 | Kawasaki Frontale | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 26:28 | 28 |
| 5 | Verdy | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 22:26 | 28 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 25:22 | 25 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 28:31 | 20 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 22:24 | 20 |
| 9 | Mito | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 23:39 | 18 |
| 10 | Chiba | 18 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 18:34 | 12 |
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 29:25 | 35 |
| 2 | Cerezo Osaka | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 30:21 | 31 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 33:31 | 31 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31:23 | 30 |
| 5 | Gamba Osaka | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31:25 | 28 |
| 6 | Okayama | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 26:29 | 26 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 23:25 | 24 |
| 8 | Kyoto | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 22:28 | 23 |
| 9 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21:29 | 21 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21:31 | 21 |
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)