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Certaldo vs Sangiuliano City Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Cogliati P.
42' Event
Palesi L.
70' Event
Bassano G.

AI Match Summary

Sangiuliano City in this Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sangiuliano City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Certaldo
20%
Draws
40%
Sangiuliano City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sangiuliano City lately — more wins on the board than Certaldo.
  • Win probability leans Sangiuliano City's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Certaldo Clean Sheet 19%
Sangiuliano City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Certaldo Sangiuliano City
Matches Played 30 41
Wins 6 18
Draws 6 10
Losses 18 13
Goals Scored 0.73 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Certaldo vs Sangiuliano City
1:2
Oct 15, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Sangiuliano City vs Certaldo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Certaldo Compare

Top Goalscorer Bassano G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Sangiuliano City Compare

Top Goalscorer Cogliati P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Palesi L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Certaldo 24 / 100
Sangiuliano City 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Certaldo Sangiuliano City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sangiuliano City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Sangiuliano City lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Certaldo found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Sangiuliano City conceded in 56% of 41 recent games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Sangiuliano City
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Certaldo

(Home)
05 May
Carpi
5 : 1
Certaldo
28 Apr
Certaldo
3 : 2
Aglianese Calcio
21 Apr
Ravenna
3 : 0
Certaldo
14 Apr
Certaldo
1 : 6
Corticella
07 Apr
Victor San Marino
1 : 1
Certaldo
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Sangiuliano City

(Away)
03 May
Sangiuliano City
0 : 5
Desenzano Calvina
26 Apr
Rovato Vertovese
2 : 0
Sangiuliano City
19 Apr
Sangiuliano City
0 : 1
Cittadella Vis Modena
12 Apr
Crema
0 : 2
Sangiuliano City
02 Apr
Sangiuliano City
3 : 3
Tropical Coriano
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)