Sport Picks

Kazakhstan

First Division 2010

Kaspij Aktau

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Cesna Almaty play Kaspij Aktau in the First Division 2010. It looks like a close match. Recently, Cesna Almaty averaged 1.39 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. Kaspij Aktau averaged 1.87 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Cesna Almaty won 2, Kaspij Aktau won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 30, 2011 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Cesna Almaty and 0.99 for Kaspij Aktau. This points to a Kaspij Aktau double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%

Cesna Almaty

15%

Draws

50%

Kaspij Aktau

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kaspij Aktau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Cesna Almaty picked up more points recently compared to Kaspij Aktau.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 0.99 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 63%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%

Cesna Almaty Clean Sheet 23%

Kaspij Aktau Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Cesna Almaty	Kaspij Aktau
Matches Played	31	45
Wins	11	26
Draws	5	5
Losses	15	14
Goals Scored	1.39	1.87
Goals Conceded	1.77	1.07

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2011 First League

Cesna Almaty vs Kaspij Aktau

Possession: 56% - 51% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

May 17, 2011 First League

Kaspij Aktau vs Cesna Almaty

Possession: 55% - 49% Cards: 2 - 2

1:0

Sep 13, 2010 First League

Cesna Almaty vs Kaspij Aktau

Possession: 55% - 58% Cards: 3 - 1

4:0

Jun 10, 2010 First League

Kaspij Aktau vs Cesna Almaty

Possession: 54% - 58% Cards: 2 - 1

1:4

Oct 22, 2007 First League

Kaspij Aktau vs Cesna Almaty

Possession: 42% - 59% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cesna Almaty 36 / 100

Kaspij Aktau 47 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Cesna Almaty Kaspij Aktau

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Kaspij Aktau or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +29.5%

3.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +10.3%

1.75

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cesna Almaty attacking → ← attacking Kaspij Aktau

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cesna Almaty scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Kaspij Aktau let in goals in 62% of their last 45 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Cesna Almaty went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Kaspij Aktau lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 83

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vostok Oskemen	34	27	6	1	91:15	87
2	Kaisar Kyzylorda	34	25	6	3	74:23	81
3	Zhetysu-Sunkar Taldykorgan	34	22	7	5	73:28	73
4	Spartak Semey	34	19	7	8	68:40	64
5	Ile-Saulet	34	18	9	7	73:38	63
6	Cesna Almaty	34	18	5	11	56:34	59
7	Kazakhmys	34	17	6	11	80:45	57
8	Ak Bulak	34	14	9	11	48:39	51
9	FC Ekibastuz	34	14	9	11	44:37	51
10	Kyzylzhar	34	14	4	16	44:57	46
11	Taraz-Karatau 2	34	12	8	14	46:54	44
12	Aktobe 2	34	13	4	17	40:66	43
13	Gefest Karagandy	34	12	2	20	52:83	38
14	Shakhter Karagandy 2	34	10	8	16	44:58	38
15	Zhenis	34	9	4	21	41:75	31
16	Kaspij Aktau	34	5	5	24	40:79	20
17	CSKA Almaty	34	5	3	26	32:76	18
18	Asbest Zitikara	34	0	2	32	11:110	2