Sport Picks

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Chapelton vs Montego Bay

Jamaica Jamaica

Premier League 2025/2026 Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex, Kingston
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Whitfield D.
69' Event
Williams L.
73' Event
Leighton S.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Chapelton and Montego Bay finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chapelton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Chapelton
15%
Draws
46%
Montego Bay
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montego Bay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Chapelton haven't matched Montego Bay's recent run of results.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Montego Bay taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Montego Bay here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Chapelton Clean Sheet 10%
Montego Bay Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chapelton Montego Bay
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 4 7
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.17 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Premier League
Montego Bay vs Chapelton
2:0
Mar 22, 2026 Premier League
Chapelton vs Montego Bay
3:1
Jan 25, 2026 Premier League
Montego Bay vs Chapelton
2:0
Oct 5, 2025 Premier League
Chapelton vs Montego Bay
1:2
Mar 10, 2025 Premier League
Chapelton vs Montego Bay
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chapelton Compare

Top Goalscorer Whitfield D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Williams L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Montego Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Sterling M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.55
Avg xA / game 1.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chapelton 18 / 100
Montego Bay 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chapelton Montego Bay

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montego Bay Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montego Bay has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Chapelton found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Chapelton has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Chapelton VS Montego Bay
1.75 Goals Scored 2.5
3.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Chapelton

(Home)
20 Sept
Chapelton
2 : 1
Molynes United
13 Sept
Montego Bay
2 : 0
Chapelton
06 May
Chapelton
2 : 7
Arnett Gardens
03 May
Waterhouse
3 : 0
Chapelton
26 Apr
Chapelton
6 : 2
Spanish Town Police
Page 1 of 6

Montego Bay

(Away)
20 Sept
Montego Bay
0 : 0
Tru-Juice FC
13 Sept
Montego Bay
2 : 0
Chapelton
24 May
Montego Bay
2 : 3
Mount Pleasant
21 May
Montego Bay
0 : 2
Cavalier
17 May
Cavalier
0 : 1
Montego Bay
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mount Pleasant 39 20 14 5 69:25 74
2 Montego Bay 39 21 8 10 79:45 71
3 Portmore 39 17 15 7 54:35 66
4 Waterhouse 39 19 8 12 51:32 65
5 Cavalier 39 19 4 16 57:41 61
6 Racing United 39 14 18 7 53:34 60
7 Arnett Gardens 39 17 7 15 68:46 58
8 Chapelton 39 14 7 18 42:57 49
9 FC Dunbeholden 39 13 9 17 40:53 48
10 Tivoli 39 11 11 17 37:58 44
11 Treasure Beach 39 10 13 16 43:59 43
12 Molynes United 39 9 15 15 45:47 42
13 Harbour View 39 9 12 18 53:73 39
14 Spanish Town Police 39 7 5 27 25:111 26
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)