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Charlestown Azzurri vs Belmont Swansea United

Australia Australia

NPL Northern NSW Lisle Carr Oval, Lake Macquarie
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Gueli M.
33' Event
Gueli M.
44' Event
Gueli M.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Northern NSW game between Charlestown Azzurri and Belmont Swansea United finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Belmont Swansea United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Charlestown Azzurri
6%
Draws
90%
Belmont Swansea United
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Belmont Swansea United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Belmont Swansea United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Belmont Swansea United a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL Northern NSW form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Charlestown Azzurri Clean Sheet 10%
Belmont Swansea United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Charlestown Azzurri Belmont Swansea United
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 10
Draws 4 7
Losses 20 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1.88
Goals Conceded 3.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 NPL Northern NSW
Charlestown Azzurri vs Belmont Swansea United
1:3
Mar 27, 2026 NPL Northern NSW
Belmont Swansea United vs Charlestown Azzurri
2:0
Jun 29, 2025 NPL Northern NSW
Belmont Swansea United vs Charlestown Azzurri
1:2
Apr 8, 2025 NPL Northern NSW
Charlestown Azzurri vs Belmont Swansea United
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Charlestown Azzurri Compare

Top Goalscorer Cahill M. J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Belmont Swansea United Compare

Top Goalscorer Gueli M.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Charlestown Azzurri 10 / 100
Belmont Swansea United 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Charlestown Azzurri Belmont Swansea United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Belmont Swansea United has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.25 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Charlestown Azzurri scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Away concern: Belmont Swansea United has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Charlestown Azzurri VS Belmont Swansea United
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
3.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
88% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Charlestown Azzurri

(Home)
25 Jul
Valentine
1 : 0
Charlestown Azzurri
15 Jul
Charlestown Azzurri
0 : 5
Weston Workers Bears
11 Jul
Cooks Hill United
4 : 0
Charlestown Azzurri
01 Jul
Newcastle Olympic
7 : 1
Charlestown Azzurri
27 Jun
Charlestown Azzurri
1 : 3
Belmont Swansea United
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Belmont Swansea United

(Away)
26 Jul
Kahibah
3 : 1
Belmont Swansea United
22 Jul
Newcastle Olympic
5 : 2
Belmont Swansea United
27 Jun
Charlestown Azzurri
1 : 3
Belmont Swansea United
20 Jun
Belmont Swansea United
1 : 0
Broadmeadow Magic FC
13 Jun
Weston Workers Bears
2 : 2
Belmont Swansea United
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Broadmeadow Magic FC19134250:2243
2Weston Workers Bears19113544:3136
3Maitland19103634:2933
4Edgeworth Eagles FC1895436:2932
5Belmont Swansea United1995543:3832
6Cooks Hill United1985637:3129
7Lambton Jaffas FC20641035:3122
8Valentine1964919:3622
9Newcastle Olympic2056938:3621
10Adamstown Rosebud1845925:3617
11Kahibah19521231:4717
12Charlestown Azzurri19421324:5014
Promotion - NPL Northern NSW (Play Offs)
Relegation - NPL Northern NSW (Relegation)