Sport Picks

Bulgaria

Third League - South-West 2023/2024

Rilski Sportist

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Chavdar Etropole play Rilski Sportist in the Third League - South-West 2023/2024. Rilski Sportist are favorites here. Recently, Chavdar Etropole averaged 0.97 goals scored and 2.23 conceded. Rilski Sportist averaged 1.58 goals scored and 0.81 conceded. In past meetings, Chavdar Etropole won 3, Rilski Sportist won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 8, 2024 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.67 for Chavdar Etropole and 1.18 for Rilski Sportist. This points to a Rilski Sportist double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%

Chavdar Etropole

15%

Draws

60%

Rilski Sportist

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rilski Sportist

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence

Chavdar Etropole picked up more points recently compared to Rilski Sportist.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.67 vs 1.18 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 72%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 72%

Over 3.5 Goals 43%

Over 4.5 Goals 22%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%

Chavdar Etropole Clean Sheet 20%

Rilski Sportist Clean Sheet 20%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chavdar Etropole	Rilski Sportist
Matches Played	30	36
Wins	8	26
Draws	1	2
Losses	21	8
Goals Scored	0.97	1.58
Goals Conceded	2.23	0.81

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2024 Third League - South-West

Chavdar Etropole vs Rilski Sportist

Possession: 53% - 40% Cards: 2 - 2

0:3

Oct 21, 2023 Third League - South-West

Rilski Sportist vs Chavdar Etropole

Possession: 45% - 58% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

May 28, 2022 Third League - South-West

Rilski Sportist vs Chavdar Etropole

Possession: 44% - 42% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

Nov 20, 2021 Third League - South-West

Chavdar Etropole vs Rilski Sportist

Possession: 59% - 59% Cards: 2 - 3

5:0

Apr 10, 2021 Third League - South-West

Chavdar Etropole vs Rilski Sportist

Possession: 57% - 53% Cards: 3 - 4

4:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chavdar Etropole 27 / 100

Rilski Sportist 58 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chavdar Etropole Rilski Sportist

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rilski Sportist Win (2)

Secondary Pick Rilski Sportist & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +47%

5.88

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.4%

1.52

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chavdar Etropole attacking → ← attacking Rilski Sportist

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chavdar Etropole scored in 37% of their last 30 games.

Rilski Sportist let in goals in 58% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Chavdar Etropole went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Rilski Sportist lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 80

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Minyor Pernik	38	31	4	3	78:29	97
2	CSKA Sofia II	38	25	5	8	68:39	80
3	Botev Ihtiman	38	20	7	11	70:52	67
4	Vihren	38	20	6	12	66:46	66
5	Slivnishki Geroy	38	16	10	12	52:47	58
6	Levski Sofia II	38	16	8	14	61:51	56
7	Rilski Sportist	38	16	4	18	58:61	52
8	Balkan Botevgrad	38	13	11	14	63:62	50
9	CSKA 1948 Sofia III	38	14	7	17	57:55	49
10	Bansko	38	13	9	16	50:54	48
11	Septemvri Sofia 2	38	13	9	16	50:46	48
12	Bistritsa	38	12	11	15	30:35	47
13	Kyustendil	38	12	10	16	53:54	46
14	Slavia Sofia 2	38	13	7	18	54:64	46
15	Oborishte Panagyurishte	38	13	7	18	58:75	46
16	Septemvri Simitli	38	10	15	13	48:50	45
17	Pirin Razlog	38	13	6	19	38:55	45
18	Kostinbrod	38	11	10	17	40:63	43
19	Hebar 2	38	9	6	23	35:63	33
20	Chavdar Etropole	38	13	2	23	46:74	41