Sport Picks
Match Events
18'
18'
Rios R.
Assist: Garnacho A.
Own Goal
34'
34'
Barrenechea E.
45'
45'
Fernandez E.
AI Match Summary
The Champions League 2025/2026 game between Chelsea and Benfica finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chelsea.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
33%
40%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Benfica
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chelsea haven't matched Benfica's recent run of results.
- Benfica are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Champions League 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Chelsea have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 10%
Benfica Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chelsea | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 31 |
| Wins | 13 | 18 |
| Draws | 3 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 2.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.88 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.88 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 30, 2025 Champions League
Chelsea vs Benfica
1:0
Jun 28, 2025 FIFA Club World Cup
Benfica vs Chelsea
1:4
May 15, 2013 Europa League
Benfica vs Chelsea
1:2
Apr 4, 2012 Champions League
Chelsea vs Benfica
2:1
Mar 27, 2012 Champions League
Benfica vs Chelsea
0:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chelsea 26 / 100
Benfica 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chelsea Benfica
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick BEN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Chelsea's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Benfica let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Chelsea remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Chelsea VS Benfica
1.5 Goals Scored 2.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Chelsea
(Home) 28 Jul
Chelsea
6 : 4 Western Sydney Wanderers
24 May
Sunderland
2 : 1 Chelsea
19 May
Chelsea
2 : 1 Tottenham
16 May
Chelsea
0 : 1 Manchester City
09 May
Liverpool
1 : 1 Chelsea
Page 1 of 6
28 Jul
Chelsea
6 : 4 Western Sydney Wanderers
19 May
Chelsea
2 : 1 Tottenham
16 May
Chelsea
0 : 1 Manchester City
04 May
Chelsea
1 : 3 Nottingham
26 Apr
Chelsea
1 : 0 Leeds
Page 1 of 3
Benfica
(Away) 24 Jul
Benfica
5 : 1 CF Os Belenenses
23 Jul
St. Gallen
2 : 1 Benfica
17 Jul
Benfica
2 : 0 Villarreal
11 Jul
Benfica
1 : 2 Flamengo RJ
16 May
Estoril
1 : 3 Benfica
Page 1 of 7
23 Jul
St. Gallen
2 : 1 Benfica
16 May
Estoril
1 : 3 Benfica
02 May
Famalicao
2 : 2 Benfica
19 Apr
Sporting CP
1 : 2 Benfica
06 Apr
Casa Pia
1 : 1 Benfica
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23:4 | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22:8 | 21 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20:8 | 18 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 17 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22:14 | 16 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:11 | 16 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 16 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:12 | 15 |
| 10 | Inter | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:7 | 15 |
| 11 | PSG | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:11 | 14 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:7 | 14 |
| 13 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 14 | Atl. Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | 13 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 17 | Dortmund | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19:17 | 11 |
| 18 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | 11 |
| 19 | Club Brugge | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | 10 |
| 21 | Monaco | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:14 | 10 |
| 22 | Qarabag Agdam | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:21 | 10 |
| 23 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 24 | Benfica | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:12 | 9 |
| 25 | Marseille | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11:14 | 9 |
| 26 | Pafos | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:11 | 9 |
| 27 | Royale Union SG | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 28 | PSV | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 8 |
| 29 | Ath Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | 8 |
| 30 | Napoli | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | 8 |
| 31 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:21 | 8 |
| 32 | Ajax | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10:21 | 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Prague | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5:19 | 3 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:18 | 1 |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7:22 | 1 |
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
