Sport Picks
Match Events
15'
15'
Francis E.
16'
16'
James E.
28'
28'
Wilson J.
Assist: Mazionis J.
AI Match Summary
Cheltenham in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Exeter
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Cheltenham have won more games recently than Exeter.
- Model gives Exeter a 40% chance of winning this.
- Cheltenham have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Cheltenham, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Cheltenham Clean Sheet 15%
Exeter Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cheltenham | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 5 |
| Draws | 7 | 12 |
| Losses | 13 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 13, 2025 EFL Cup
Cheltenham vs Exeter
2:0
Apr 1, 2024 League One
Cheltenham vs Exeter
1:2
Sep 16, 2023 League One
Exeter vs Cheltenham
1:0
Mar 18, 2023 League One
Cheltenham vs Exeter
3:1
Aug 20, 2022 League One
Exeter vs Cheltenham
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cheltenham Compare
Top Goalscorer Wilson J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Broom R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Exeter Compare
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cheltenham 27 / 100
Exeter 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cheltenham Exeter
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick EXE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Cheltenham scored in 75% of their last 28 games.
Exeter's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Exeter's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Cheltenham VS Exeter
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Cheltenham
(Home) 01 Aug
Cheltenham
0 : 2 Milton Keynes Dons
18 Jul
Evesham
0 : 3 Cheltenham
02 May
Cheltenham
1 : 4 Colchester
25 Apr
Bristol Rovers
4 : 0 Cheltenham
21 Apr
Cheltenham
1 : 3 Tranmere
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Cheltenham
0 : 2 Milton Keynes Dons
02 May
Cheltenham
1 : 4 Colchester
21 Apr
Cheltenham
1 : 3 Tranmere
18 Apr
Cheltenham
1 : 0 Newport
14 Apr
Cheltenham
2 : 1 Gillingham
Page 1 of 3
Exeter
(Away) 01 Aug
Exeter
1 : 1 Bristol City
31 Jul
Torquay
2 : 1 Exeter
25 Jul
Weston-super-Mare
0 : 2 Exeter
18 Jul
Truro
1 : 0 Exeter
02 May
Exeter
1 : 2 Bradford City
Page 1 of 6
31 Jul
Torquay
2 : 1 Exeter
25 Jul
Weston-super-Mare
0 : 2 Exeter
18 Jul
Truro
1 : 0 Exeter
25 Apr
Burton
1 : 1 Exeter
11 Apr
Plymouth
2 : 2 Exeter
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
