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Stadium Background

Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs R. Volgograd

Russia Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Centralnyy, Novorossiysk
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Sub
Arbuzov Y. In: Rodionov I.
Out: Arbuzov Y.
31'
Pliev Z.
35'
Konovalov I.

AI Match Summary

The FNL 2025/2026 game between Chernomorets Novorossijsk and R. Volgograd finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward R. Volgograd.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
33%
Draws
40%
R. Volgograd
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: R. Volgograd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • R. Volgograd carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives R. Volgograd a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular FNL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Chernomorets Novorossijsk Clean Sheet 16%
R. Volgograd Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chernomorets Novorossijsk R. Volgograd
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 9 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 0.83 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.67 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.83 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.67 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 FNL
Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs R. Volgograd
1:4
Feb 14, 2026 Club Friendly
R. Volgograd vs Chernomorets Novorossijsk
5:0
Oct 12, 2025 FNL
R. Volgograd vs Chernomorets Novorossijsk
2:0
Apr 13, 2025 FNL
Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs R. Volgograd
1:1
Sep 20, 2024 FNL
R. Volgograd vs Chernomorets Novorossijsk
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chernomorets Novorossijsk Compare

Avg xG / game 0.64
Avg xA / game 0.41

R. Volgograd Compare

Top Goalscorer Eldarushev A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Aliev S.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chernomorets Novorossijsk 28 / 100
R. Volgograd 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chernomorets Novorossijsk R. Volgograd

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ROT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Chernomorets Novorossijsk found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

R. Volgograd let in goals in 52% of their last 27 matches.

Chernomorets Novorossijsk has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Chernomorets Novorossijsk VS R. Volgograd
0.83 Goals Scored 1.25
1.67 Goals Conceded 0.63
67% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
33% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chernomorets Novorossijsk

(Home)
16 May
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
2 : 1
Ural
08 May
FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye
0 : 2
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
02 May
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
1 : 3
Rodina Moscow
26 Apr
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
0 : 1
Saratov
22 Apr
Neftekhimik
4 : 0
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
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R. Volgograd

(Away)
27 Jul
Kamaz
0 : 2
R. Volgograd
20 Jul
R. Volgograd
1 : 0
SKA Khabarovsk
12 Jul
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
4 : 2
R. Volgograd
06 Jul
R. Volgograd
1 : 3
Akron Togliatti
28 Jun
R. Volgograd
1 : 0
Ufa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Rodina Moscow341911458:2868
2Fakel Voronezh34208644:2268
3Ural34187951:3161
4R. Volgograd341511847:2656
5Kamaz341213946:3449
6Yenisey3413101137:3549
7S. Kostroma341213946:4149
8Shinnik Yaroslavl341115834:2848
9Torpedo Moscow3412101237:3946
10Chelyabinsk3410141042:4044
11Neftekhimik3410131140:4143
12SKA Khabarovsk3410121237:4542
13Arsenal Tula348151142:4439
14Ulyanovsk349101535:4837
15Ufa349101532:4037
16Chernomorets Novorossijsk34981737:4935
17Saratov345111816:4426
18FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye34572230:7622
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)