Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs S. Kostroma

Russia Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Centralnyy, Novorossiysk
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Khubulov A.
10'
Khubaev D.
19'
Khubulov A.

AI Match Summary

The FNL 2025/2026 game between Chernomorets Novorossijsk and S. Kostroma finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward S. Kostroma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
28%
Draws
50%
S. Kostroma
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: S. Kostroma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Chernomorets Novorossijsk haven't matched S. Kostroma's recent run of results.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on S. Kostroma taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Chernomorets Novorossijsk Clean Sheet 18%
S. Kostroma Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chernomorets Novorossijsk S. Kostroma
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 7 11
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 0.83 1
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.83 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.67 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 FNL
Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs S. Kostroma
1:2
Nov 2, 2025 FNL
S. Kostroma vs Chernomorets Novorossijsk
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chernomorets Novorossijsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Khubulov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.64
Avg xA / game 0.41

S. Kostroma Compare

Top Goalscorer Tarasov N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chernomorets Novorossijsk 23 / 100
S. Kostroma 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chernomorets Novorossijsk S. Kostroma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KOS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Chernomorets Novorossijsk scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

S. Kostroma let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Chernomorets Novorossijsk went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chernomorets Novorossijsk VS S. Kostroma
0.83 Goals Scored 1
1.67 Goals Conceded 1.25
67% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 25%
33% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Chernomorets Novorossijsk

(Home)
16 May
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
2 : 1
Ural
08 May
FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye
0 : 2
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
02 May
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
1 : 3
Rodina Moscow
26 Apr
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
0 : 1
Saratov
22 Apr
Neftekhimik
4 : 0
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
Page 1 of 6

S. Kostroma

(Away)
25 Jul
Tekstilshtik
0 : 0
S. Kostroma
19 Jul
PFC Sochi
0 : 2
S. Kostroma
12 Jul
S. Kostroma
3 : 1
Kamaz
03 Jul
Lokomotiv Moscow
2 : 0
S. Kostroma
02 Jul
Spartak Moscow
1 : 0
S. Kostroma
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Rodina Moscow341911458:2868
2Fakel Voronezh34208644:2268
3Ural34187951:3161
4R. Volgograd341511847:2656
5Kamaz341213946:3449
6Yenisey3413101137:3549
7S. Kostroma341213946:4149
8Shinnik Yaroslavl341115834:2848
9Torpedo Moscow3412101237:3946
10Chelyabinsk3410141042:4044
11Neftekhimik3410131140:4143
12SKA Khabarovsk3410121237:4542
13Arsenal Tula348151142:4439
14Ulyanovsk349101535:4837
15Ufa349101532:4037
16Chernomorets Novorossijsk34981737:4935
17Saratov345111816:4426
18FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye34572230:7622
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)