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Stadium Background

Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs Torpedo Moscow

Russia Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Centralnyy
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Apekov R.
62'
Sub
Curic M. In: Moskvichev V.
Out: Curic M.
62'
Sub
Apekov R. In: Shitov V.
Out: Apekov R.

AI Match Summary

Torpedo Moscow in this FNL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Torpedo Moscow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
6%
Draws
90%
Torpedo Moscow
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Torpedo Moscow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Torpedo Moscow have won more games recently than Chernomorets Novorossijsk.
  • Model gives Torpedo Moscow a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular FNL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Chernomorets Novorossijsk Clean Sheet 16%
Torpedo Moscow Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chernomorets Novorossijsk Torpedo Moscow
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 17
Draws 7 5
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 0.86 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.71 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.86 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.71 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 FNL
Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs Torpedo Moscow
0:2
Oct 5, 2025 FNL
Torpedo Moscow vs Chernomorets Novorossijsk
1:4
Mar 1, 2025 FNL
Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs Torpedo Moscow
2:0
Aug 25, 2024 FNL
Torpedo Moscow vs Chernomorets Novorossijsk
1:1
May 4, 2024 FNL
Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs Torpedo Moscow
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chernomorets Novorossijsk Compare

Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.43

Torpedo Moscow Compare

Top Goalscorer Apekov R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Camara M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chernomorets Novorossijsk 10 / 100
Torpedo Moscow 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chernomorets Novorossijsk Torpedo Moscow

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chernomorets Novorossijsk scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Torpedo Moscow has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Chernomorets Novorossijsk remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chernomorets Novorossijsk VS Torpedo Moscow
0.86 Goals Scored 1.25
1.71 Goals Conceded 0.75
71% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 13%
29% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Rodina Moscow341911458:2868
2Fakel Voronezh34208644:2268
3Ural34187951:3161
4R. Volgograd341511847:2656
5Kamaz341213946:3449
6Yenisey3413101137:3549
7S. Kostroma341213946:4149
8Shinnik Yaroslavl341115834:2848
9Torpedo Moscow3412101237:3946
10Chelyabinsk3410141042:4044
11Neftekhimik3410131140:4143
12SKA Khabarovsk3410121237:4542
13Arsenal Tula348151142:4439
14Ulyanovsk349101535:4837
15Ufa349101532:4037
16Chernomorets Novorossijsk34981737:4935
17Saratov345111816:4426
18FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye34572230:7622