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Chiba vs Kashima Antlers

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Fukuda Denshi Arena
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Araki R.
Assist: Suzuki Y.
45'
de Souza Junior C. A.
46'
Sub
Shinada M. In: Yasui T.
Out: Shinada M.

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between Chiba and Kashima Antlers finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kashima Antlers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Chiba
6%
Draws
90%
Kashima Antlers
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Kashima Antlers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kashima Antlers come out ahead of Chiba on wins alone.
  • Kashima Antlers are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Kashima Antlers here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Chiba Clean Sheet 11%
Kashima Antlers Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chiba Kashima Antlers
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 22
Draws 3 4
Losses 18 4
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 2 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 J1 League
Chiba vs Kashima Antlers
0:2
Mar 22, 2026 J1 League
Kashima Antlers vs Chiba
2:1
Dec 23, 2012 Emperors Cup
Chiba vs Kashima Antlers
0:1
Oct 24, 2009 J1 League
Kashima Antlers vs Chiba
3:0
May 2, 2009 J1 League
Chiba vs Kashima Antlers
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chiba Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Kashima Antlers Compare

Top Goalscorer Araki R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Morooka S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chiba 10 / 100
Kashima Antlers 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chiba Kashima Antlers

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KAS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chiba found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Kashima Antlers let in goals in 40% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Chiba remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chiba VS Kashima Antlers
1 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kashima Antlers18150331:1145
2FC Tokyo18130532:1837
3Machida Zelvia18130528:2237
4Kawasaki Frontale18100826:2828
5Verdy18100822:2628
6Urawa Reds18701125:2225
7Yokohama F. Marinos18601228:3120
8Kashiwa Reysol18701122:2420
9Mito18601223:3918
10Chiba18301518:3412
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vissel Kobe18110729:2535
2Cerezo Osaka18110730:2131
3Nagoya Grampus18100833:3131
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima18100831:2330
5Gamba Osaka18100831:2528
6Okayama18801026:2926
7Shimizu S-Pulse18801023:2524
8Kyoto18801022:2823
9V-Varen Nagasaki18701121:2921
10Avispa Fukuoka18701121:3121