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Chiba vs Kashima Antlers

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba
Chiba Logo

Chiba

0 - 2
FT
Kashima Antlers Logo

Kashima Antlers

Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Araki R.
Assist: Suzuki Y.
45'
de Souza Junior C. A.
46'
Sub
Shinada M. In: Yasui T.
Out: Shinada M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between Chiba and Kashima Antlers finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kashima Antlers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Chiba
20%
Draws
29%
Kashima Antlers
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chiba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kashima Antlers come out ahead of Chiba on wins alone.
  • Chiba are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Kashima Antlers here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Chiba Clean Sheet 10%
Kashima Antlers Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chiba Kashima Antlers
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 22
Draws 2 1
Losses 21 6
Goals Scored 1.1 2.17
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 J1 League
Chiba vs Kashima Antlers
0:2
Mar 22, 2026 J1 League
Kashima Antlers vs Chiba
2:1
Dec 23, 2012 Emperors Cup
Chiba vs Kashima Antlers
0:1
Oct 24, 2009 J1 League
Kashima Antlers vs Chiba
3:0
May 2, 2009 J1 League
Chiba vs Kashima Antlers
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chiba Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Kashima Antlers Compare

Top Goalscorer Araki R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Morooka S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chiba 40 / 100
Kashima Antlers 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chiba Kashima Antlers

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chiba found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Chiba went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Kashima Antlers has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chiba VS Kashima Antlers
1.25 Goals Scored 2.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Chiba

(Home)
19 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1
Chiba
13 Sept
Verdy
1 : 1
Chiba
09 Sept
Kamatamare Sanuki
0 : 2
Chiba
06 Sept
Chiba
2 : 0
Gamba Osaka
02 Sept
Chiba
1 : 2
Okayama
Page 1 of 6

Kashima Antlers

(Away)
19 Sept
Kawasaki Frontale
3 : 3
Kashima Antlers
15 Sept
Kashima Antlers
7 : 1
Newcastle Jets
11 Sept
Vissel Kobe
2 : 1
Kashima Antlers
06 Sept
Kashima Antlers
0 : 1
Urawa Reds
02 Sept
Mito
4 : 2
Kashima Antlers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashima Antlers 18 15 0 3 31:11 45
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 32:18 37
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 28:22 37
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 26:28 28
5 Verdy 18 10 0 8 22:26 28
6 Urawa Reds 18 7 0 11 25:22 25
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 28:31 20
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 22:24 20
9 Mito 18 6 0 12 23:39 18
10 Chiba 18 3 0 15 18:34 12
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 29:25 35
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 30:21 31
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 33:31 31
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 31:23 30
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 31:25 28
6 Okayama 18 8 0 10 26:29 26
7 Shimizu S-Pulse 18 8 0 10 23:25 24
8 Kyoto 18 8 0 10 22:28 23
9 V-Varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 21:29 21
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 21:31 21
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)