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Chievo vs Pavia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Verona
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Quaggio A.
40' Event
D'Este N.
90' Event
Costantino R.

AI Match Summary

Chievo in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chievo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Chievo
30%
Draws
12%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chievo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Chievo lately — more wins on the board than Pavia.
  • Chievo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Chievo Clean Sheet 20%
Pavia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chievo Pavia
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 16 8
Draws 4 9
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.45 0.89
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Chievo vs Pavia
2:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Chievo
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chievo Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Este N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Costantino R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Quaggio A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chievo 85 / 100
Pavia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chievo Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chievo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Chievo remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Chievo's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Pavia let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Chievo VS Pavia
2.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chievo

(Home)
21 Sept
Chievo
2 : 1
Ciserano-Bergamo
16 Sept
Chievo
2 : 0
Club Milano
12 Sept
Rovato Vertovese
3 : 4
Chievo
05 Sept
Chievo
1 : 0
Pavonese
17 May
USD Casatese
2 : 3
Chievo
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Pavia

(Away)
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Solbiatese
06 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Crema
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)