Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chievo vs Pavia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Verona
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Quaggio A.
40' Event
D'Este N.
90' Event
Costantino R.

AI Match Summary

Chievo in this Serie D - Group B matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chievo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Chievo
6%
Draws
4%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Chievo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Chievo lately — more wins on the board than Pavia.
  • Chievo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Chievo Clean Sheet 20%
Pavia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chievo Pavia
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 16 9
Draws 5 10
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 1 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Chievo vs Pavia
2:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Chievo
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chievo Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Este N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Costantino R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Quaggio A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chievo 85 / 100
Pavia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chievo Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chievo found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: Chievo stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Pavia has conceded goals in 63% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Scoring Trends

Chievo VS Pavia
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Chievo

(Home)
17 May
USD Casatese
2 : 3
Chievo
10 May
Chievo
2 : 1
AC Milan U23
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
AC Leon
2 : 2
Chievo
19 Apr
Chievo
2 : 2
Castellanzese
Page 1 of 6

Pavia

(Away)
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
Pavia
3 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Folgore Caratese341911458:2768
2USD Casatese341613549:2861
3Chievo341861052:4360
4AC Milan U23341681062:3756
5AC Leon341411944:3453
6Brusaporto341561341:3851
7Oltrepo341581138:3650
8Scanzorosciate341114941:3347
9Villa Valle341381343:4647
10Ciserano-Bergamo3411131033:3146
11Caldiero Terme341015950:4045
12Real Calepina341191442:4742
13Castellanzese3410111341:3941
14Breno349111439:5138
15Pavia349101536:4737
16Varesina347151238:4436
17Sondrio34871937:6431
18Vogherese34282421:80-17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)