Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

China China

Super League Tongliang Long Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chongqing Tonglianglong play Shenzhen Xinpengcheng in the Super League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chongqing Tonglianglong averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. In past meetings, Chongqing Tonglianglong won 1, Shenzhen Xinpengcheng won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 17, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Chongqing Tonglianglong and 1.38 for Shenzhen Xinpengcheng. This points to a Chongqing Tonglianglong double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Chongqing Tonglianglong
19%
Draws
26%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Chongqing Tonglianglong

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Chongqing Tonglianglong picked up more points recently compared to Shenzhen Xinpengcheng.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Chongqing Tonglianglong Clean Sheet 17%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chongqing Tonglianglong Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 8 3
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 1.14 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Super League
Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chongqing Tonglianglong Compare

Top Goalscorer Chen Chunxin
1 Goals
Assists Leader Xiang Yuwang
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chongqing Tonglianglong 53 / 100
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chongqing Tonglianglong Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chongqing Tonglianglong Win (1)
Secondary Pick Chongqing Tonglianglong & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.1%
2.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chongqing Tonglianglong attacking → ← attacking Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chongqing Tonglianglong scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Chongqing Tonglianglong went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 30
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Chengdu Rongcheng17132237:1641
2Chongqing Tonglianglong1776421:1927
3Dalian Yingbo1781825:3125
4Yunnan Yukun1773731:2924
5Qingdao West Coast1759322:2524
6Beijing Guoan1775529:2321
7Shandong Taishan1783630:2821
8Liaoning Tieren1762924:2920
9Shanghai Shenhua1785436:2719
10Zhejiang Professional1764723:2917
11Shenzhen Xinpengcheng17521022:3117
12Shanghai Port1755726:2415
13Henan Songshan Longmen1763818:2215
14Qingdao Hainiu1763827:2814
15Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1746722:228
16Wuhan Three Towns1727824:348