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Cienciano vs FBC Melgar

South America South America

Copa Sudamericana Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Fri, Mar 6, 2026
2 - 1
12:30 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Barreto G.
34'
Caceda C.
46'
Sub
Barreto G. In: Arias Fierro S. D.
Out: Barreto G.

AI Match Summary

The Copa Sudamericana game between Cienciano and FBC Melgar finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cienciano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Cienciano
40%
Draws
29%
FBC Melgar
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cienciano come out ahead of FBC Melgar on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Copa Sudamericana fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and FBC Melgar have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Cienciano Clean Sheet 16%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cienciano FBC Melgar
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Liga 1
Cienciano vs FBC Melgar
1:3
Mar 6, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Cienciano vs FBC Melgar
2:1
Jan 31, 2026 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Cienciano
2:0
Oct 3, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Cienciano
2:0
May 11, 2025 Liga 1
Cienciano vs FBC Melgar
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cienciano Compare

Top Goalscorer Becerra K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

FBC Melgar Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramos A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cienciano 31 / 100
FBC Melgar 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cienciano FBC Melgar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cienciano scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

FBC Melgar has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Cienciano stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cienciano VS FBC Melgar
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Nacional Asuncion1
Recoleta2
Sportivo Trinidense0
Olimpia Asuncion1
Alianza Atl.2
Deportivo Garcilaso0
Cienciano2
FBC Melgar1
Montevideo City1
Defensor Sp.0
Boston River1
Racing Montevideo0
Academia Puerto Cabello1
Monagas0
Caracas1
Metropolitanos0
U. De Chile1
Palestino2
Cobresal1
A. Italiano2
Atl. Nacional1
Millonarios3
America De Cali2
Bucaramanga1
Independiente1
Guabira0
Blooming3
San Antonio Bulo Bulo0
Dep. Cuenca3
Libertad0
Orense0
Macara1