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Cimarrones de Sonora vs Tritones Vallarta

Mexico Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026
Cimarrones de Sonora Logo

Cimarrones de Sonora

1 - 0
FT
Tritones Vallarta Logo

Tritones Vallarta

Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Cimarrones de Sonora in this Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cimarrones de Sonora.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Cimarrones de Sonora
35%
Draws
16%
Tritones Vallarta
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cimarrones de Sonora

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Cimarrones de Sonora have won more games recently than Tritones Vallarta.
  • 49% — that's where the model lands on Cimarrones de Sonora taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Cimarrones de Sonora have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Cimarrones de Sonora Clean Sheet 20%
Tritones Vallarta Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cimarrones de Sonora Tritones Vallarta
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 14
Draws 10 4
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 1.73 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.01
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Cimarrones de Sonora vs Tritones Vallarta
1:0
Sep 27, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Tritones Vallarta vs Cimarrones de Sonora
0:3
Feb 15, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Tritones Vallarta vs Cimarrones de Sonora
0:0
Oct 12, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A
Cimarrones de Sonora vs Tritones Vallarta
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cimarrones de Sonora 76 / 100
Tritones Vallarta 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cimarrones de Sonora Tritones Vallarta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cimarrones de Sonora Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Cimarrones de Sonora scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Tritones Vallarta let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Solid form: Cimarrones de Sonora remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cimarrones de Sonora VS Tritones Vallarta
1.71 Goals Scored 0.88
1.14 Goals Conceded 0.63
86% Over 1.5 50%
57% Over 2.5 0%
43% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Cimarrones de Sonora

(Home)
26 Apr
Cimarrones de Sonora
2 : 2
Celaya
23 Apr
Celaya
2 : 1
Cimarrones de Sonora
19 Apr
Cimarrones de Sonora
1 : 1
Mineros de Fresnillo
15 Apr
Mineros de Fresnillo
1 : 1
Cimarrones de Sonora
11 Apr
Zapotlanejo
0 : 4
Cimarrones de Sonora
Page 1 of 6

Tritones Vallarta

(Away)
20 Sept
Los Cabos United
1 : 0
Tritones Vallarta
11 Sept
Tritones Vallarta
1 : 1
Zacatepec
28 Aug
Tritones Vallarta
0 : 1
Reboceros de La Piedad
25 Apr
Deportiva Venados
1 : 0
Tritones Vallarta
22 Apr
Tritones Vallarta
1 : 1
Deportiva Venados
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alacranes de Durango 26 21 2 3 71:16 74
2 Tigres de Alica 26 17 3 6 46:25 56
3 Cimarrones de Sonora 26 15 7 4 46:19 54
4 Leones Negros 2 26 16 2 8 42:26 53
5 Tecos 26 14 4 8 49:34 49
6 Tritones Vallarta 26 15 1 10 32:27 46
7 Mineros de Fresnillo 26 11 4 11 40:41 39
8 Los Cabos United 26 11 3 12 37:40 37
9 Guerreros de Autlan 26 8 5 13 38:42 32
10 UA Zacatecas 26 8 4 14 32:49 29
11 Ensenada FC 26 8 2 16 30:55 28
12 Reboceros de La Piedad 26 7 1 18 39:66 23
13 Zapotlanejo 26 6 1 19 39:73 21
14 Colima FC 26 4 3 19 24:52 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Apodaca 26 21 2 3 47:19 66
2 FC Santiago 26 14 7 5 43:21 51
3 Zacatepec 26 12 8 6 29:15 45
4 Halcones de Zapopan 26 11 6 9 44:27 44
5 Calor De San Pedro 26 12 7 7 37:26 44
6 Gavilanes de Matamoros 26 12 5 9 31:22 44
7 Lobos ULMX 26 11 6 9 33:28 40
8 Correcaminos 2 26 9 7 10 27:25 36
9 Chilpancingo 26 9 8 9 33:41 35
10 Cordobes FC 26 8 6 12 29:30 30
11 Zitacuaro 26 6 10 10 22:31 28
12 CS Canamy 26 5 8 13 33:53 26
13 Ciervos 26 4 4 18 20:50 18
14 Atletico Hidalgo 26 4 4 18 22:62 16
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing de Veracruz 24 21 3 0 55:9 71
2 Deportiva Venados 24 15 4 5 61:25 52
3 Tapachula 24 13 0 11 51:35 44
4 Celaya 24 12 4 8 42:32 43
5 Inter Playa Del Carmen 24 13 4 7 35:28 42
6 Montaneses 24 12 2 10 35:28 38
7 Pioneros 24 10 3 11 35:35 35
8 Jaguares De Chiapas 24 9 4 11 33:32 34
9 Heroes de Zaci 24 10 2 12 33:46 34
10 Chapulineros 24 5 8 11 21:33 23
11 Canoneros FC 24 7 1 16 25:49 22
12 Neza FC 24 5 2 17 25:73 19
13 Dragones Toluca 24 4 3 17 21:47 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)