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Constancia vs Migjorn

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Gaya J.
54' Event
Gaya J.

AI Match Summary

Constancia in this Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Constancia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Constancia
30%
Draws
8%
Migjorn
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Constancia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Constancia lately — more wins on the board than Migjorn.
  • 62% — that's where the model lands on Constancia taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 35.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Constancia Clean Sheet 20%
Migjorn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Constancia Migjorn
Matches Played 35 29
Wins 20 4
Draws 6 3
Losses 9 22
Goals Scored 1.74 0.76
Goals Conceded 0.77 2.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.98 0.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Constancia vs Migjorn
2:0
Sep 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Migjorn vs Constancia
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Constancia Compare

Top Goalscorer Gaya J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.52
Avg xA / game 0.99

Migjorn Compare

Avg xG / game 0.49
Avg xA / game 0.3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Constancia 85 / 100
Migjorn 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Constancia Migjorn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Constancia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Constancia found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (35 games).

Defensive concern: Migjorn conceded in 93% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Constancia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Constancia VS Migjorn
2.63 Goals Scored 0.33
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.33
88% Over 1.5 33%
75% Over 2.5 33%
38% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Constancia

(Home)
13 Sept
Santanyi
1 : 1
Constancia
05 Sept
Constancia
3 : 0
Arenal
24 May
Pena Deportiva
2 : 1
Constancia
17 May
Constancia
1 : 1
Pena Deportiva
10 May
Constancia
3 : 0
Inter Ibiza
Page 1 of 7

Migjorn

(Away)
12 Sept
Migjorn
1 : 3
SD Ibiza
06 Sept
PE Sant Jordi
1 : 0
Migjorn
11 May
Migjorn
1 : 3
Porreres
03 May
Binissalem
2 : 0
Migjorn
30 Apr
Migjorn
1 : 1
Santanyi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Poblense 34 22 6 6 47:17 72
2 Constancia 34 18 13 3 55:31 67
3 Formentera 34 19 9 6 68:34 66
4 Porreres 34 17 11 6 51:32 62
5 Penya Independent 34 17 7 10 59:34 58
6 Platges de Calvia 34 14 12 8 51:37 54
7 Manacor 34 13 12 9 54:36 51
8 Alcudia 34 13 8 13 51:53 47
9 Binissalem 34 13 8 13 35:34 47
10 Llosetense 34 12 8 14 47:45 44
11 Santanyi 34 10 13 11 40:45 43
12 Mercadal 34 10 10 14 40:43 40
13 Felanitx 34 10 10 14 33:50 40
14 Collerense 34 9 12 13 42:48 39
15 Portmany 34 8 13 13 43:51 37
16 PE Sant Jordi 34 8 6 20 30:52 30
17 Campos 34 4 8 22 31:75 20
18 Migjorn 34 4 4 26 22:82 16
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025 (Play Offs)