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Cook Islands vs Tonga

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games
Cook Islands Logo

Cook Islands

2 - 1
FT
Tonga Logo

Tonga

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Pacific Games game between Cook Islands and Tonga finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cook Islands.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Cook Islands
15%
Draws
42%
Tonga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cook Islands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Tonga's 1.16 goals per match outpaces what Cook Islands have produced (0.78).
  • Model gives Tonga a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Cook Islands Clean Sheet 15%
Tonga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cook Islands Tonga
Matches Played 27 31
Wins 6 6
Draws 2 2
Losses 19 23
Goals Scored 0.78 1.16
Goals Conceded 2.48 3.68
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2024 World Championship
Cook Islands vs Tonga
1:3
Mar 26, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Cook Islands vs Tonga
1:0
Nov 21, 2023 Pacific Games
Cook Islands vs Tonga
2:1
Mar 13, 2022 World Championship
Tonga vs Cook Islands
0:0
Aug 31, 2015 World Championship
Tonga vs Cook Islands
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cook Islands 23 / 100
Tonga 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cook Islands Tonga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tonga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tonga conceded in 94% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Tonga lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Cook Islands scored in 48% of their last 27 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cook Islands VS Tonga
0.25 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 5.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Cook Islands

(Home)
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
22 Mar
Samoa
1 : 0
Cook Islands
30 Nov
Samoa
3 : 0
Cook Islands
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Tonga

(Away)
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
31 Aug
Ba
4 : 0
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
20 Mar
Tonga
1 : 4
Samoa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Caledonia 2 2 0 0 15:0 6
2 Cook Islands 2 1 0 1 2:9 3
3 Tonga 2 0 0 2 1:9 0
Promotion - Pacific Games (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games (5th-8th places)
Promotion - Pacific Games (9th-12th places)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vanuatu 2 1 1 0 7:1 4
2 Papua New Guinea 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
3 Tuvalu 2 0 0 2 0:9 0
Promotion - Pacific Games (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games (5th-8th places)
Promotion - Pacific Games (9th-12th places)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fiji 2 1 1 0 10:0 4
2 Tahiti 2 1 1 0 5:0 4
3 Northern Mariana Islands 2 0 0 2 0:15 0
Promotion - Pacific Games (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games (5th-8th places)
Promotion - Pacific Games (9th-12th places)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Solomon Islands 2 2 0 0 12:0 6
2 Samoa 2 1 0 1 10:1 3
3 American Samoa 2 0 0 2 0:21 0
Promotion - Pacific Games (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games (5th-8th places)
Promotion - Pacific Games (9th-12th places)