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Crateus vs Vila Real

Brazil Brazil

Cearense 3 2025
Crateus Logo

Crateus

1 - 0
FT
Vila Real Logo

Vila Real

Our Tip

Match Events

79' Event
Renan
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Cearense 3 2025 game between Crateus and Vila Real finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Crateus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Crateus
20%
Draws
45%
Vila Real
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vila Real

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Crateus carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Vila Real taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61.4%
Crateus Clean Sheet 20%
Vila Real Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Crateus Vila Real
Matches Played 19 18
Wins 10 8
Draws 4 5
Losses 5 5
Goals Scored 1 1.06
Goals Conceded 0.58 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2025 Cearense 3
Vila Real vs Crateus
0:1
Jun 29, 2025 Cearense 3
Crateus vs Vila Real
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Crateus Compare

Top Goalscorer Renan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Vila Real Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Crateus 28 / 100
Vila Real 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Crateus Vila Real

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vila Real Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vila Real's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 18 matches.

Crateus went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Crateus found the back of the net in 58% of recent matches (19 games).

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Crateus VS Vila Real
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Crateus

(Home)
30 May
Icasa
3 : 0
Crateus
24 May
Crateus
0 : 0
Icasa
20 May
Crateus
1 : 0
Cariri FC
09 May
Crateus
1 : 0
Guarany SC
29 Apr
Atletico Cearense
0 : 2
Crateus
Page 1 of 4

Vila Real

(Away)
19 Sept
Vila Real
1 : 0
Pacatuba
12 Sept
Pacatuba
1 : 1
Vila Real
05 Sept
Tiangua EC
0 : 1
Vila Real
22 Aug
Vila Real
3 : 2
Acopiara
15 Aug
Calouros do Ar
1 : 2
Vila Real
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Crateus 6 4 1 1 7:4 13
2 Guarany SC 6 2 3 1 6:4 9
3 Vila Real 6 2 2 2 5:3 8
4 Esporte Limoeiro 6 0 2 4 2:9 2
Promotion - Cearense 3 2025 (Play Offs)