Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 Alexandra Stadium, Crewe

Crewe

7 - 1

Chesterfield

Our Tip

Match Events

Tezgel E.

Assist: Armstrong O.

Tezgel E.

Assist: Moore L.

16'

Agius C.

Assist: Tezgel E.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 7-1, with Crewe advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%

Crewe

35%

Draws

18%

Chesterfield

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Crewe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Crewe come out ahead of Chesterfield on wins alone.
60% — that's where the model lands on Crewe taking it.
Crewe have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Chesterfield, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%

Crewe Clean Sheet 19%

Chesterfield Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Crewe	Chesterfield
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	12	11
Draws	7	11
Losses	9	7
Goals Scored	1.25	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.38	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 League Two

Chesterfield vs Crewe

2:0

Nov 22, 2025 League Two

Crewe vs Chesterfield

3:3

Sep 2, 2025 EFL Trophy

Crewe vs Chesterfield

7:1

Mar 1, 2025 League Two

Chesterfield vs Crewe

1:3

Aug 17, 2024 League Two

Crewe vs Chesterfield

0:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Crewe Compare

Top Goalscorer Tezgel E.

3 Goals

Assists Leader Agius C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Chesterfield Compare

Top Goalscorer Lewis A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Crewe 58 / 100

Chesterfield 19 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Crewe Chesterfield

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CRE Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Crewe scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Chesterfield has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Crewe has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Crewe VS Chesterfield

1.25 Goals Scored 1.13

1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 63%

50% Over 2.5 38%

38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Crewe

(Home)

01 Aug

Chester

0 : 0

Crewe

25 Jul

Crewe

1 : 2

Birmingham

21 Jul

Telford

0 : 3

Crewe

18 Jul

Crewe

1 : 1

Stoke City

11 Jul

Witton Albion

2 : 3

Crewe

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Chesterfield

(Away)

31 Jul

Scunthorpe

1 : 1

Chesterfield

14 Jul

Halifax

3 : 2

Chesterfield

11 Jul

Chesterfield

0 : 0

Sheffield Utd

15 May

Notts County

0 : 0

Chesterfield

10 May

Chesterfield

0 : 1

Notts County

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