Sport Picks

Croatia

Prva NL 2025/2026 Stadion ŠRC Marijan Šuto Mrma

Jarun

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Croatia Zmijavci play Jarun in the Prva NL 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Croatia Zmijavci averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. Jarun averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Croatia Zmijavci won 0, Jarun won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Croatia Zmijavci and 1.13 for Jarun. This points to a Jarun double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Croatia Zmijavci

28%

Draws

36%

Jarun

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Jarun

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence

Croatia Zmijavci picked up more points recently compared to Jarun.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Croatia Zmijavci Clean Sheet 21%

Jarun Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Croatia Zmijavci	Jarun
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	11	9
Draws	6	8
Losses	14	13
Goals Scored	1.13	1.3
Goals Conceded	1.35	1.33
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Prva NL

Croatia Zmijavci vs Jarun

Possession: 60% - 58% Cards: 0 - 2

1:2

Mar 7, 2026 Prva NL

Jarun vs Croatia Zmijavci

Possession: 55% - 57% Cards: 0 - 2

4:0

Oct 12, 2025 Prva NL

Croatia Zmijavci vs Jarun

Possession: 49% - 40% Cards: 2 - 0

2:2

May 4, 2025 Prva NL

Croatia Zmijavci vs Jarun

Possession: 59% - 56% Cards: 0 - 2

0:1

Feb 22, 2025 Prva NL

Jarun vs Croatia Zmijavci

Possession: 57% - 58% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Croatia Zmijavci Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Jarun Compare

Top Goalscorer Jug P.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Ocvirek N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Croatia Zmijavci 37 / 100

Jarun 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Croatia Zmijavci Jarun

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Jarun or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Croatia Zmijavci attacking → ← attacking Jarun

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Croatia Zmijavci scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Jarun let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Croatia Zmijavci went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Jarun lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 35

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rudes	33	19	8	6	49:29	65
2	Cibalia	33	17	7	9	51:33	58
3	Sesvete	33	16	9	8	42:28	57
4	Dugopolje	33	16	6	11	40:38	54
5	Dubrava Zagreb	33	13	8	12	39:46	47
6	Bijelo Brdo	33	11	9	13	30:30	42
7	Karlovac	33	13	3	17	40:45	42
8	Opatija	33	10	10	13	31:38	40
9	Orijent	33	9	11	13	40:41	38
10	Hrvace	33	10	6	17	36:48	36
11	Croatia Zmijavci	33	9	8	16	32:46	35
12	Jarun	33	8	9	16	34:42	33