Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cruz Azul vs Puebla

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Monarrez F.
Assist: Herrera A.
37'
Romero L.
44' Event
Romero L.
Assist: Marquez J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX game between Cruz Azul and Puebla finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cruz Azul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Cruz Azul
15%
Draws
37%
Puebla
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cruz Azul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cruz Azul come out ahead of Puebla on wins alone.
  • Model gives Cruz Azul a 48% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Cruz Azul here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Cruz Azul Clean Sheet 16%
Puebla Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cruz Azul Puebla
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 16 8
Draws 8 5
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.72 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2026 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Puebla
2:1
Jan 18, 2026 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Puebla
1:0
Nov 1, 2025 Liga MX
Puebla vs Cruz Azul
0:3
Jan 25, 2025 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Puebla
1:1
Oct 19, 2024 Liga MX
Puebla vs Cruz Azul
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cruz Azul Compare

Top Goalscorer Romero L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ebere C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Puebla Compare

Top Goalscorer Monarrez F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cruz Azul 39 / 100
Puebla 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cruz Azul Puebla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cruz Azul Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cruz Azul scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Puebla let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Cruz Azul stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cruz Azul VS Puebla
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Cruz Azul

(Home)
20 Sept
Monterrey
1 : 0
Cruz Azul
17 Sept
Inter Miami
2 : 0
Cruz Azul
13 Sept
Cruz Azul
4 : 3
Club America
06 Sept
Cruz Azul
1 : 0
Santos Laguna
29 Aug
Necaxa
1 : 3
Cruz Azul
Page 1 of 7

Puebla

(Away)
19 Sept
Puebla
1 : 1
Atlante
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Necaxa
0 : 1
Puebla
30 Aug
Club America
2 : 0
Puebla
23 Aug
Puebla
3 : 2
Santos Laguna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toluca 9 6 1 2 20:9 19
2 Guadalajara Chivas 9 5 3 1 17:8 18
3 Club America 8 5 2 1 17:8 17
4 Cruz Azul 9 5 0 4 16:15 15
5 Queretaro 8 4 2 2 11:8 14
6 Club Tijuana 8 4 2 2 12:10 14
7 Club Leon 9 4 2 3 12:10 14
8 Puebla 9 4 2 3 11:11 14
9 Atlas 9 4 2 3 13:15 14
10 Monterrey 8 4 1 3 14:10 13
11 Pachuca 9 3 3 3 15:10 12
12 UNAM Pumas 9 3 3 3 12:13 12
13 Atletico San Luis 9 2 3 4 11:16 9
14 Atlante 9 1 5 3 8:13 8
15 Necaxa 9 2 2 5 10:16 8
16 Tigres UANL 9 1 4 4 9:13 7
17 Santos Laguna 9 2 1 6 9:15 7
18 Juarez 9 1 0 8 6:23 3
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)