Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CSKA Sofia III vs Rilski Sportist

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-West 2025/2026 game between CSKA Sofia III and Rilski Sportist finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CSKA Sofia III.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
CSKA Sofia III
35%
Draws
41%
Rilski Sportist
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Rilski Sportist

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Rilski Sportist carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
CSKA Sofia III Clean Sheet 20%
Rilski Sportist Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CSKA Sofia III Rilski Sportist
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 11 16
Draws 9 4
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.22 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.04 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Third League - South-West
CSKA Sofia III vs Rilski Sportist
1:0
Nov 1, 2025 Third League - South-West
Rilski Sportist vs CSKA Sofia III
2:1
May 10, 2025 Third League - South-West
Rilski Sportist vs CSKA Sofia III
0:0
Nov 13, 2024 Third League - South-West
CSKA Sofia III vs Rilski Sportist
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CSKA Sofia III 32 / 100
Rilski Sportist 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CSKA Sofia III Rilski Sportist

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rilski Sportist Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CSKA Sofia III's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Rilski Sportist has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

Recent resilience: CSKA Sofia III stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CSKA Sofia III VS Rilski Sportist
0.75 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

CSKA Sofia III

(Home)
12 Sept
Levski Sofia II
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia III
05 Sept
CSKA Sofia III
3 : 2
Slavia Sofia 2
29 Aug
Botev Ihtiman
2 : 1
CSKA Sofia III
22 Aug
CSKA Sofia III
1 : 1
Kyustendil
15 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia III
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Rilski Sportist

(Away)
20 Sept
Marek
1 : 3
Rilski Sportist
13 Sept
Rilski Sportist
2 : 0
Yantra Gabrovo
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1
Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Rilski Sportist
2 : 1
Svoge
29 Aug
Dobrudzha
0 : 0
Rilski Sportist
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rilski Sportist 34 25 5 4 58:23 80
2 Strumska Slava 34 20 5 9 71:45 65
3 Slavia Sofia 2 34 17 6 11 68:44 57
4 Botev Ihtiman 34 14 9 11 53:40 51
5 Kyustendil 34 15 5 14 49:52 50
6 CSKA Sofia III 34 15 5 14 49:43 50
7 Oborishte Panagyurishte 34 14 7 13 43:37 49
8 Balkan Botevgrad 34 13 10 11 50:45 49
9 Septemvri Sofia 2 34 13 9 12 50:43 48
10 Septemvri Simitli 34 13 8 13 41:40 47
11 Kostinbrod 34 14 5 15 47:51 47
12 Pirin Razlog 34 13 6 15 43:48 45
13 Bansko 34 11 11 12 39:45 44
14 Slivnishki Geroy 34 11 9 14 40:49 42
15 Levski Sofia II 34 11 7 16 30:44 40
16 Gotse Delchev 34 11 4 19 43:70 37
17 Germaneya 34 4 6 24 38:75 18
18 Bistritsa 34 11 5 18 44:62 38
Relegation - Third League - South-West 2025/2026 (Relegation)