Sport Picks
Defensores de Belgrano vs Atl. Rafaela
Argentina
Primera Nacional Estadio Juan Pasquale, Belgrano 
Match Events
8'
8'
Ponce F.
22'
22'
Aguirre E.
23'
23'
Ponce F.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Primera Nacional matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
40%
29%
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Atl. Rafaela have won more games recently than Defensores de Belgrano.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Defensores de Belgrano Clean Sheet 68%
Atl. Rafaela Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Defensores de Belgrano | Atl. Rafaela |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 10 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.5 | 0.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 0.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 30, 2026 Primera Nacional
Defensores de Belgrano vs Atl. Rafaela
1:1
Aug 24, 2024 Primera Nacional
Defensores de Belgrano vs Atl. Rafaela
0:0
Apr 7, 2024 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Defensores de Belgrano
0:1
Oct 31, 2023 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Defensores de Belgrano
1:0
Jul 11, 2022 Primera Nacional
Defensores de Belgrano vs Atl. Rafaela
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Defensores de Belgrano Compare
Top Goalscorer Benitez A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25
Atl. Rafaela Compare
Top Goalscorer Quiroga M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Defensores de Belgrano 42 / 100
Atl. Rafaela 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Defensores de Belgrano Atl. Rafaela
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensores de Belgrano scored in 59% of their last 29 games.
Atl. Rafaela's defensive record shows goals conceded in 48% of 29 matches.
H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.
Defensores de Belgrano went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Defensores de Belgrano VS Atl. Rafaela
0.5 Goals Scored 0.38
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Defensores de Belgrano
(Home) 12 Jul
Godoy Cruz
1 : 0 Defensores de Belgrano
04 Jul
Defensores de Belgrano
2 : 1 Deportivo Moron
21 Jun
Defensores de Belgrano
0 : 1 All Boys
13 Jun
Defensores de Belgrano
0 : 3 Colon Santa Fe
06 Jun
San Miguel
0 : 0 Defensores de Belgrano
Page 1 of 6
04 Jul
Defensores de Belgrano
2 : 1 Deportivo Moron
21 Jun
Defensores de Belgrano
0 : 1 All Boys
13 Jun
Defensores de Belgrano
0 : 3 Colon Santa Fe
30 May
Defensores de Belgrano
1 : 0 San Telmo
18 May
Defensores de Belgrano
0 : 0 Chaco For Ever
Page 1 of 3
Atl. Rafaela
(Away) 11 Jul
Atl. Rafaela
1 : 3 Deportivo Maipu
04 Jul
Almagro
1 : 0 Atl. Rafaela
23 Jun
Nueva Chicago
0 : 0 Atl. Rafaela
14 Jun
Patronato
0 : 0 Atl. Rafaela
06 Jun
Atl. Rafaela
1 : 0 Colegiales
Page 1 of 6
04 Jul
Almagro
1 : 0 Atl. Rafaela
23 Jun
Nueva Chicago
0 : 0 Atl. Rafaela
14 Jun
Patronato
0 : 0 Atl. Rafaela
31 May
Quilmes
2 : 0 Atl. Rafaela
16 May
Atletico Atlanta
2 : 0 Atl. Rafaela
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 23:14 | 40 |
| 2 | Colon Santa Fe | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 27:15 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Moron | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 29:19 | 35 |
| 4 | Los Andes | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 19:8 | 32 |
| 5 | Ciudad Bolivar | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 19:16 | 30 |
| 6 | CA Estudiantes | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 18:16 | 30 |
| 7 | Almirante Brown | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 15:13 | 30 |
| 8 | Deportivo Madryn | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 27:22 | 29 |
| 9 | Godoy Cruz | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20:17 | 28 |
| 10 | San Miguel | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 17:21 | 25 |
| 11 | Racing Cordoba | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 20:24 | 24 |
| 12 | Defensores de Belgrano | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 14:18 | 23 |
| 13 | All Boys | 20 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 13:20 | 21 |
| 14 | San Telmo | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 15 | Acassuso | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 15:23 | 19 |
| 16 | Central Norte | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12:21 | 19 |
| 17 | CA Mitre | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 19:27 | 18 |
| 18 | Chaco For Ever | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 17:26 | 16 |
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32:22 | 38 |
| 2 | Atletico Atlanta | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | 36 |
| 3 | Tristan Suarez | 20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 17:11 | 33 |
| 4 | Temperley | 20 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 19:17 | 31 |
| 5 | Midland | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 21:15 | 30 |
| 6 | San Martin T. | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 19:15 | 29 |
| 7 | Deportivo Maipu | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 27:21 | 28 |
| 8 | Atl. Rafaela | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 15:16 | 27 |
| 9 | San Martin S.J. | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:19 | 26 |
| 10 | Nueva Chicago | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 17:17 | 25 |
| 11 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 19:21 | 25 |
| 12 | Almagro | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 16:22 | 25 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 18:16 | 24 |
| 14 | Colegiales | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 18:20 | 23 |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 16:21 | 23 |
| 16 | Patronato | 20 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 13:17 | 22 |
| 17 | Agropecuario | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 14:24 | 19 |
| 18 | Club Atletico Guemes | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18:34 | 19 |
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
