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Delfin vs Independiente del Valle - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Copa Ecuador Estadio Jocay, Manta
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
VS
12:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa Ecuador. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Delfin at 1.04 goals for, 1.3 against; Independiente del Valle at 2.29 for, 0.96 against. Past meetings favor Independiente del Valle slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 15, 2026, ending 3:2. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.44, favoring Independiente del Valle. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Delfin
30%
Draws
31%
Independiente del Valle
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Delfin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Independiente del Valle come out ahead of Delfin on wins alone.
  • 31% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Independiente del Valle arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Independiente del Valle, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Delfin Clean Sheet 16%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Delfin Independiente del Valle
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 9 21
Draws 5 3
Losses 13 4
Goals Scored 1.04 2.29
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Delfin
3:2
Apr 22, 2026 Liga Pro
Delfin vs Independiente del Valle
0:1
Sep 28, 2025 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Delfin
0:0
May 31, 2025 Liga Pro
Delfin vs Independiente del Valle
1:1
Aug 3, 2024 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Delfin
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Delfin 36 / 100
Independiente del Valle 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Delfin Independiente del Valle

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independiente del Valle Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Delfin scored in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Independiente del Valle let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Delfin has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Delfin VS Independiente del Valle
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Delfin

(Home)
24 Oct
Orense
4 : 0
Delfin
18 Oct
Delfin
4 : 2
Manta
09 Oct
Delfin
3 : 2
Mushuc Runa
20 Sept
Tecnico U.
1 : 1
Delfin
17 Sept
LDU Portoviejo
0 : 2
Delfin
Page 1 of 6

Independiente del Valle

(Away)
23 Oct
Independiente del Valle
0 : 0
U. Catolica
17 Oct
Macara
1 : 0
Independiente del Valle
10 Oct
Independiente del Valle
2 : 1
Aucas
25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2
Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1
Independiente del Valle
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
LDU Quito -
TBD -
Africando 1
Independiente Juniors 2
Leones del Norte -
TBD -
Huaquillas FC 1
Rio Aguarico 0
Aucas -
TBD -
Guaranda 0
San Antonio 1
Dep. Cuenca -
TBD -
La Union 1
Cumbaya 0
Emelec -
TBD -
U.D. Juvenil 0
Daquilema 2
Guayaquil City -
TBD -
Astillero 2
22 de Julio 1
U. Catolica -
TBD -
Dunamis 1
EL Nacional 5
Orense -
TBD -
Domingo TSA 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle -
TBD -
Primero de Mayo 0
Dep. Santo Domingo 2
Manta -
TBD -
Nazareno 0
Nueve de Octubre 4
Mushuc Runa -
TBD -
Dep. Quito 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara -
TBD -
Quito 2
CD Cuenca Juniors 3
Barcelona SC -
TBD -
Insutec 4
Club Deportivo Ibarra 3
Libertad -
TBD -
Ind. Azogues 0
LDU Portoviejo 5
Delfin -
TBD -
Banos 2
Anaconda 1
Tecnico U. -
TBD -
Juventud Italiana 2
Atletico FC 1
1/16-finals
LDU Quito 2
Independiente Juniors 1
Leones del Norte 1
Huaquillas FC 0
Aucas 3
San Antonio 0
Dep. Cuenca 0
La Union 1
Emelec 0
Daquilema 1
Guayaquil City 1
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 4
EL Nacional 1
Orense 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 2
Dep. Santo Domingo 0
Manta 1
Nueve de Octubre 0
Mushuc Runa 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara 1
CD Cuenca Juniors 0
Barcelona SC 4
Insutec 2
Libertad 1
LDU Portoviejo 2
Delfin 2
Banos 0
Tecnico U. 0
Juventud Italiana 2
1/8-finals
LDU Quito 6
Leones del Norte 0
Aucas 2
La Union 1
Daquilema 0
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 3
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 1
Manta 0
Gualaceo 2
Macara 1
Barcelona SC 0
LDU Portoviejo 3
Delfin 1
Juventud Italiana 0
Quarter-finals
LDU Quito 1
Aucas 0
Astillero 0
U. Catolica 1
Independiente del Valle 2
Gualaceo 0
LDU Portoviejo 0
Delfin 2
Semi-finals
LDU Quito -
U. Catolica -
Independiente del Valle -
Delfin -
Final
TBD -
TBD -