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Denbigh vs Newtown

Wales Wales

Cymru North 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Flanders D.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru North 2025/2026 game between Denbigh and Newtown finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Denbigh.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
Denbigh
20%
Draws
74%
Newtown
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Newtown

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • Denbigh haven't matched Newtown's recent run of results.
  • Newtown are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Newtown have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Denbigh Clean Sheet 10%
Newtown Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Denbigh Newtown
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 13
Draws 3 3
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1.41 1.57
Goals Conceded 2.14 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Cymru North
Newtown vs Denbigh
1:0
Jan 24, 2026 Cymru North
Denbigh vs Newtown
1:0
Sep 27, 2025 Cymru North
Newtown vs Denbigh
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Denbigh Compare

Top Goalscorer Flanders D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Newtown Compare

Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Denbigh 10 / 100
Newtown 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Denbigh Newtown

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newtown Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Denbigh scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Newtown has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.67 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Denbigh remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Denbigh VS Newtown
1.5 Goals Scored 2.25
2.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Denbigh

(Home)
05 Sept
Newtown
1 : 0
Denbigh
31 Aug
Denbigh
1 : 3
Rhyl
28 Aug
Penrhyncoch
2 : 2
Denbigh
21 Aug
Denbigh
2 : 3
Porthmadog
14 Aug
Ruthin Town
2 : 1
Denbigh
Page 1 of 6

Newtown

(Away)
05 Sept
Newtown
1 : 0
Denbigh
31 Aug
Bala
0 : 1
Newtown
28 Aug
Newtown
4 : 0
Llanuwchllyn
15 Aug
Newtown
1 : 1
Guilsfield
08 Aug
Newtown
5 : 0
Penrhyncoch
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Llandudno FC 30 26 2 2 77:22 80
2 Airbus UK Broughton FC 30 24 3 3 93:22 75
3 Holywell Town FC 30 18 6 6 78:40 60
4 Newtown 30 15 3 12 51:49 48
5 Rhyl 30 14 4 12 46:55 46
6 Guilsfield 30 13 4 13 50:48 43
7 Mold Alexandra 30 12 5 13 38:45 41
8 Denbigh 30 12 4 14 52:59 40
9 Caersws FC 30 11 4 15 46:51 37
10 Brickfield Rangers 30 11 4 15 39:49 37
11 Holyhead 30 10 6 14 44:49 36
12 Penrhyncoch 30 10 5 15 45:53 35
13 Buckley 30 9 3 18 50:77 30
14 Flint Mountain 30 9 2 19 39:61 29
15 Gresford 30 8 4 18 47:87 28
16 Ruthin Town 30 6 5 19 36:64 23
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)