Sport Picks
Dep. Merlo vs Villa San Carlos
Argentina
Primera B Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium, Buenos Aires 
Match Events
19'
19'
Sandoval I.
25'
25'
Lugones A.
43'
43'
Lugones A.
AI Match Summary
The Primera B game between Dep. Merlo and Villa San Carlos finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Villa San Carlos.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
35%
39%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Villa San Carlos
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Dep. Merlo's 1 goals per match outpaces what Villa San Carlos have produced (0.97).
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Regular Primera B form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Dep. Merlo Clean Sheet 68%
Villa San Carlos Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Dep. Merlo | Villa San Carlos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 8 |
| Draws | 11 | 12 |
| Losses | 10 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.44 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 25, 2026 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Villa San Carlos
1:2
Mar 14, 2026 Primera B
Villa San Carlos vs Dep. Merlo
1:1
Oct 12, 2025 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Villa San Carlos
1:1
May 24, 2025 Primera B
Villa San Carlos vs Dep. Merlo
1:1
Jul 27, 2024 Primera B
Villa San Carlos vs Dep. Merlo
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Dep. Merlo Compare
Top Goalscorer Sandoval I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.34
Avg xA / game 0.22
Villa San Carlos Compare
Top Goalscorer Lugones A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Salinas R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Dep. Merlo 42 / 100
Villa San Carlos 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Dep. Merlo Villa San Carlos
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Dep. Merlo found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).
Villa San Carlos's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Dep. Merlo stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Dep. Merlo VS Villa San Carlos
0.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Dep. Merlo
(Home) 20 Sept
Dep. Merlo
2 : 1 Flandria
13 Sept
Argentino de Quilmes
1 : 0 Dep. Merlo
05 Sept
Dep. Merlo
0 : 0 Defensores Unidos
31 Aug
Comunicaciones
1 : 0 Dep. Merlo
26 Aug
Dep. Merlo
1 : 2 Dock Sud
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Dep. Merlo
2 : 1 Flandria
05 Sept
Dep. Merlo
0 : 0 Defensores Unidos
26 Aug
Dep. Merlo
1 : 2 Dock Sud
08 Aug
Dep. Merlo
0 : 4 Sportivo Italiano
25 Jul
Dep. Merlo
1 : 2 Villa San Carlos
Page 1 of 3
Villa San Carlos
(Away) 20 Sept
Villa San Carlos
0 : 0 Talleres Remedios Escalada
12 Sept
Laferrere
1 : 1 Villa San Carlos
06 Sept
Villa San Carlos
0 : 0 Brown Adrogue
30 Aug
Deportivo Armenio
1 : 0 Villa San Carlos
25 Aug
Villa San Carlos
3 : 2 Flandria
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Laferrere
1 : 1 Villa San Carlos
30 Aug
Deportivo Armenio
1 : 0 Villa San Carlos
22 Aug
Argentino de Quilmes
0 : 2 Villa San Carlos
07 Aug
Comunicaciones
0 : 1 Villa San Carlos
25 Jul
Dep. Merlo
1 : 2 Villa San Carlos
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 36 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 56:29 | 71 |
| 2 | Arsenal Sarandi | 36 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 48:24 | 66 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios Escalada | 36 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 37:19 | 64 |
| 4 | Deportivo Camioneros | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 42:24 | 63 |
| 5 | Villa Dalmine | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 38:21 | 63 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 41:27 | 59 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 36 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 40:35 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 38:38 | 54 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 38:33 | 53 |
| 10 | Laferrere | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 43:47 | 48 |
| 11 | San Martin Burzaco | 36 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 35:37 | 47 |
| 12 | Dock Sud | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 38:38 | 44 |
| 13 | Argentino de Merlo | 36 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 32:36 | 44 |
| 14 | Dep. Merlo | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 36:50 | 43 |
| 15 | Villa San Carlos | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 35:39 | 41 |
| 16 | Argentino de Quilmes | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 29:36 | 41 |
| 17 | CSD Liniers | 36 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 30:37 | 40 |
| 18 | Flandria | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 32:45 | 38 |
| 19 | Defensores Unidos | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 31:38 | 37 |
| 20 | Brown Adrogue | 36 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 21:37 | 35 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 18:33 | 31 |
| 22 | Ituzaingo | 36 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 23:58 | 15 |
Promotion - Primera Nacional 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C 2027 (Apertura)
