Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dep. Pasto vs Bogota

Colombia Colombia

Copa Colombia Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto
Our Tip

Match Events

84' Event
Velasco J.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-3. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Dep. Pasto
20%
Draws
29%
Bogota
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dep. Pasto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Bogota have managed 0.77 goals a game lately — Dep. Pasto are scoring more at 1.29.
  • Win probability leans Dep. Pasto's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Dep. Pasto, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Dep. Pasto have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Dep. Pasto Clean Sheet 20%
Bogota Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Pasto Bogota
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 5 9
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.29 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 Copa Colombia
Bogota vs Dep. Pasto
0:3
Jul 22, 2026 Copa Colombia
Dep. Pasto vs Bogota
0:1
Jan 9, 2026 Club Friendly
Dep. Pasto vs Bogota
3:1
Jan 9, 2026 Club Friendly
Dep. Pasto vs Bogota
2:0
Aug 21, 2011 Primera B
Bogota vs Dep. Pasto
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dep. Pasto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Bogota Compare

Top Goalscorer Velasco J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Pasto 40 / 100
Bogota 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Pasto Bogota

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dep. Pasto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dep. Pasto scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Bogota's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Dep. Pasto has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Dep. Pasto VS Bogota
0.63 Goals Scored 0.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Dep. Pasto

(Home)
20 Sept
Dep. Pasto
1 : 0
Once Caldas
15 Sept
America De Cali
0 : 1
Dep. Pasto
10 Sept
Dep. Pasto
1 : 4
Ind. Medellin
05 Sept
Cucuta
2 : 2
Dep. Pasto
31 Aug
Dep. Pasto
1 : 2
Dep. Pereira
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Bogota

(Away)
14 Sept
Tigres Futbol Club
0 : 0
Bogota
04 Sept
Bogota
0 : 2
Independiente Valle del Cauca
29 Aug
Atletico F.C.
2 : 1
Bogota
25 Aug
Boca Juniors de Cali
1 : 2
Bogota
20 Aug
Cartagena
2 : 0
Bogota
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Atl. Nacional 4
Tigres Futbol Club 0
Junior 5
Barranquilla 6
Dep. Pasto 3
Bogota 1
America De Cali 3
Cartagena 2
Once Caldas 6
Envigado 0
Deportes Tolima 3
Quindio 4
Santa Fe 2
Union Magdalena 0
Inter Bogotá 3
Inter Palmira 1