Sport Picks

Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Almirante Brown

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Deportivo Moron play Almirante Brown in the Primera Nacional. It looks like a close match. Recently, Deportivo Moron averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. Almirante Brown averaged 0.79 goals scored and 0.76 conceded. In past meetings, Deportivo Moron won 2, Almirante Brown won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 7, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Deportivo Moron and 0.75 for Almirante Brown. This points to a Deportivo Moron double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%

Deportivo Moron

33%

Draws

29%

Almirante Brown

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Deportivo Moron

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Deportivo Moron picked up more points recently compared to Almirante Brown.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 0.75 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 52%

Over 2.5 Goals 30%

Over 3.5 Goals 18%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%

Deportivo Moron Clean Sheet 27%

Almirante Brown Clean Sheet 17%

First Half Goal 47%

Second Half Goal 49%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Deportivo Moron	Almirante Brown
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	14	11
Draws	9	9
Losses	7	9
Goals Scored	1.23	0.79
Goals Conceded	0.77	0.76
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Primera Nacional

Deportivo Moron vs Almirante Brown

Possession: 55% - 49% Cards: 2 - 2

1:0

Jun 14, 2025 Primera Nacional

Deportivo Moron vs Almirante Brown

Possession: 54% - 45% Cards: 3 - 1

2:0

Feb 9, 2025 Primera Nacional

Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron

Possession: 55% - 55% Cards: 2 - 4

1:1

Aug 25, 2024 Primera Nacional

Deportivo Moron vs Almirante Brown

Possession: 55% - 54% Cards: 2 - 2

0:1

Apr 6, 2024 Primera Nacional

Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron

Possession: 48% - 60% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportivo Moron Compare

Top Goalscorer Olivares J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Almirante Brown Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportivo Moron 40 / 100

Almirante Brown 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Deportivo Moron Almirante Brown

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Deportivo Moron or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26.5%

3.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +25.1%

4.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Deportivo Moron attacking → ← attacking Almirante Brown

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deportivo Moron scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Almirante Brown let in goals in 52% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Deportivo Moron went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Almirante Brown lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 42

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro	20	12	4	4	23:14	40
2	Deportivo Moron	20	10	5	5	29:19	35
3	Los Andes	20	8	8	4	19:8	32
4	Colon Santa Fe	19	8	8	3	23:15	32
5	Ciudad Bolivar	20	7	9	4	19:16	30
6	CA Estudiantes	20	8	6	6	18:16	30
7	Almirante Brown	20	8	6	6	15:13	30
8	Deportivo Madryn	20	7	8	5	27:22	29
9	Godoy Cruz	19	6	7	6	19:17	25
10	San Miguel	20	5	10	5	17:21	25
11	Defensores de Belgrano	19	5	8	6	14:17	23
12	Racing Cordoba	19	5	6	8	17:22	21
13	All Boys	20	4	9	7	13:20	21
14	San Telmo	20	4	8	8	16:21	20
15	Central Norte	19	4	7	8	12:17	19
16	Acassuso	19	5	4	10	13:20	19
17	CA Mitre	20	3	9	8	19:27	18
18	Chaco For Ever	20	3	7	10	17:26	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gimnasia Jujuy	19	11	4	4	31:21	37
2	Atletico Atlanta	19	10	3	6	24:15	33
3	Tristan Suarez	20	8	9	3	17:11	33
4	Temperley	19	7	9	3	19:17	30
5	Deportivo Maipu	20	8	4	8	27:21	28
6	Midland	19	7	6	6	20:15	27
7	Atl. Rafaela	20	7	6	7	15:16	27
8	San Martin T.	19	6	8	5	16:15	26
9	Nueva Chicago	19	6	7	6	17:17	25
10	Almagro	19	7	4	8	16:19	25
11	Quilmes	19	6	6	7	18:15	24
12	Gimnasia y Tiro	19	6	6	7	18:20	24
13	Colegiales	19	6	5	8	18:19	23
14	San Martin S.J.	18	6	5	7	18:19	23
15	Chacarita Juniors	19	6	4	9	15:20	22
16	Patronato	19	4	9	6	12:16	21
17	Club Atletico Guemes	19	5	4	10	18:32	19
18	Agropecuario	19	4	6	9	14:24	18