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Desenzano Calvina vs Trevigliese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
de Respinis A.
44' Event
Barranca F.
81' Event
Gabbianelli G.

AI Match Summary

Desenzano Calvina in this Serie D - Group D matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Desenzano Calvina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Desenzano Calvina
6%
Draws
4%
Trevigliese
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Desenzano Calvina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Desenzano Calvina lately — more wins on the board than Trevigliese.
  • Desenzano Calvina are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 68%
Trevigliese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Desenzano Calvina Trevigliese
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 22 3
Draws 7 8
Losses 3 19
Goals Scored 1.63 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.38 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Desenzano Calvina vs Trevigliese
2:1
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Trevigliese vs Desenzano Calvina
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Desenzano Calvina Compare

Top Goalscorer Barranca F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gabbianelli G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Trevigliese Compare

Top Goalscorer de Respinis A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desenzano Calvina 95 / 100
Trevigliese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Desenzano Calvina Trevigliese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DES Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Desenzano Calvina scored in 81% of their last 32 games.

Trevigliese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Desenzano Calvina has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Desenzano Calvina VS Trevigliese
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 2.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Desenzano Calvina

(Home)
31 May
Scafatese
1 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
24 May
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 1
Scafatese
17 May
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 1
Grosseto
10 May
Ostiamare
0 : 2
Desenzano Calvina
03 May
Sangiuliano City
0 : 5
Desenzano Calvina
Page 1 of 7

Trevigliese

(Away)
03 May
Tuttocuoio
3 : 3
Trevigliese
26 Apr
Trevigliese
1 : 2
Lentigione
19 Apr
Correggese
1 : 1
Trevigliese
12 Apr
Trevigliese
0 : 1
Pro Palazzolo
02 Apr
Piacenza
2 : 0
Trevigliese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Desenzano Calvina34238360:2177
2Lentigione34227551:2373
3Pistoiese342011361:2271
4Piacenza34197860:3564
5Pro Palazzolo34169944:3157
6Pro Sesto341510945:3055
7Cittadella Vis Modena341510935:2955
8Rovato Vertovese3414101035:2952
9Sangiuliano City341481241:4547
10SCD Progresso341091538:4239
11Sant'Angelo341091538:5139
12Correggese349121335:3639
13Crema349111435:4738
14Imolese348101628:4734
15Sasso Marconi34871933:4931
16Tropical Coriano347101729:4531
17Trevigliese34582131:6223
18Tuttocuoio34082618:738
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)