Sport Picks
Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Vilavelhense
Brazil
Capixaba Estádio Engenheiro Alencar Araripe, Cariacica 
Match Events
15'
15'
Ruan
42'
42'
Palacios Cantillo J. D.
44'
44'
Sub
Lucas Bonete In: Jomar
Out: Lucas Bonete
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
30%
34%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Desportiva Ferroviaria
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Vilavelhense have managed 0.75 goals a game lately — Desportiva Ferroviaria are scoring more at 0.83.
- Model gives Desportiva Ferroviaria a 36% chance of winning this.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Vilavelhense, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 26%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Desportiva Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 20%
Vilavelhense Clean Sheet 17%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Desportiva Ferroviaria | Vilavelhense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.83 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.83 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 27, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Desportiva Ferroviaria
1:1
Feb 22, 2026 Capixaba
Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Vilavelhense
1:1
Jan 20, 2026 Capixaba
Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Vilavelhense
1:2
Jun 29, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Vilavelhense
0:1
Mar 8, 2025 Capixaba
Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Vilavelhense
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Desportiva Ferroviaria Compare
Top Goalscorer Ruan
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.64
Avg xA / game 0.41
Vilavelhense Compare
Top Goalscorer Davis
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Desportiva Ferroviaria 36 / 100
Vilavelhense 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Desportiva Ferroviaria Vilavelhense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Desportiva Ferroviaria found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).
Vilavelhense has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.
Desportiva Ferroviaria has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Desportiva Ferroviaria VS Vilavelhense
0.83 Goals Scored 0.75
0.83 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 50%
17% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Desportiva Ferroviaria
(Home) 05 Mar
Desportiva Ferroviaria
0 : 1 Sport Recife
27 Feb
Vilavelhense
1 : 1 Desportiva Ferroviaria
22 Feb
Desportiva Ferroviaria
1 : 1 Vilavelhense
17 Feb
Sampaio Correa FE
1 : 2 Desportiva Ferroviaria
12 Feb
Forte
0 : 1 Desportiva Ferroviaria
Page 1 of 6
05 Mar
Desportiva Ferroviaria
0 : 1 Sport Recife
22 Feb
Desportiva Ferroviaria
1 : 1 Vilavelhense
08 Feb
Desportiva Ferroviaria
0 : 1 Capixaba SC
31 Jan
Desportiva Ferroviaria
0 : 0 Porto Vitoria
28 Jan
Desportiva Ferroviaria
1 : 1 Rio Branco ES
Page 1 of 4
Vilavelhense
(Away) 23 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0 Vilavelhense
17 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 2 Vitoria ES
06 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 0 Audax Sao Mateus
03 Jun
Vilavelhense
1 : 0 Vitoria ES
28 May
Rio Branco ES
1 : 1 Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 6
23 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0 Vilavelhense
28 May
Rio Branco ES
1 : 1 Vilavelhense
09 May
Serra
2 : 3 Vilavelhense
03 May
Rio Branco-VN
2 : 0 Vilavelhense
15 Mar
Serra
1 : 0 Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Rio Branco ES1
Porto Vitoria2
Vitoria ES5
Forte2
Vilavelhense2
Desportiva Ferroviaria2
Serra2
Real Noroeste2
Semi-finals
Porto Vitoria6
Vitoria ES5
Vilavelhense1
Serra3
Final
Porto Vitoria4
Serra3
