Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Desportivo Moncao vs Sao Martinho

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Fernandes F.
76' Event
Andrezo D.
(Penalty)
90' Event
Amorim D.

AI Match Summary

Sao Martinho in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sao Martinho.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Desportivo Moncao
11%
Draws
80%
Sao Martinho
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Sao Martinho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sao Martinho lately — more wins on the board than Desportivo Moncao.
  • Win probability leans Sao Martinho's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Sao Martinho have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Desportivo Moncao Clean Sheet 19%
Sao Martinho Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Desportivo Moncao Sao Martinho
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 10
Draws 6 4
Losses 19 16
Goals Scored 1.38 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Sao Martinho vs Desportivo Moncao
3:1
Dec 21, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Desportivo Moncao vs Sao Martinho
1:2
Mar 5, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Desportivo Moncao vs Sao Martinho
1:1
Nov 20, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Sao Martinho vs Desportivo Moncao
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Desportivo Moncao Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandes F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sao Martinho Compare

Top Goalscorer Amorim D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desportivo Moncao 12 / 100
Sao Martinho 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Desportivo Moncao Sao Martinho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.25 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Desportivo Moncao scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Sao Martinho has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Difficult form: Sao Martinho registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Desportivo Moncao VS Sao Martinho
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Desportivo Moncao

(Home)
18 Apr
Sao Martinho
3 : 1
Desportivo Moncao
12 Apr
Desportivo Moncao
0 : 5
SC Vianense
04 Apr
Tirsense
1 : 0
Desportivo Moncao
22 Mar
Desportivo Moncao
1 : 4
Chaves B
15 Mar
AD Limianos
4 : 1
Desportivo Moncao
Page 1 of 6

Sao Martinho

(Away)
18 Apr
Sao Martinho
3 : 1
Desportivo Moncao
12 Apr
SC Mirandela
2 : 0
Sao Martinho
04 Apr
Sao Martinho
2 : 0
CD Ribeira Brava
22 Mar
Celoricense
0 : 0
Sao Martinho
15 Mar
Sao Martinho
0 : 1
Vilaverdense FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1GD Braganca26146641:2948
2SC Vianense26146649:2848
3Brito26144836:2446
4Celoricense26119635:2342
5AD Limianos26118735:3241
6Tirsense26913431:2240
7Camacha2699834:2636
8Chaves B2699840:2936
9Machico261061028:3036
10Sao Martinho261041222:3134
11SC Mirandela261021421:2932
12Vilaverdense FC26491315:3121
13CD Ribeira Brava26481420:4620
14Desportivo Moncao26451726:5317
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)