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Diyala vs Al Talaba

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Msuva S.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Diyala and Al Talaba finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Talaba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Diyala
35%
Draws
35%
Al Talaba
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Al Talaba carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Diyala a 30% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Diyala Clean Sheet 68%
Al Talaba Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Al Talaba
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 7 11
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.07 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Talaba
2:1
May 1, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Talaba
0:1
Jan 27, 2026 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Diyala
1:1
Feb 14, 2025 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Diyala
0:0
Dec 12, 2024 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Talaba
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Al Talaba Compare

Top Goalscorer Msuva S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 59 / 100
Al Talaba 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Al Talaba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Diyala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Diyala scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Al Talaba let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Diyala remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS Al Talaba
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
19 Sept
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Diyala
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
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Al Talaba

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Talaba
2 : 2
Al Golan
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0
Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2
Al Karkh
05 Sept
Zakho
0 : 0
Al Talaba
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)