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Dorense vs Amadense

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Sergipano 2018
Our Tip

Match Events

89' Event
Santos G. M. d.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Sergipano 2018 game between Dorense and Amadense finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Amadense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Dorense
15%
Draws
42%
Amadense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dorense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Amadense haven't matched Dorense's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Amadense's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Amadense have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Dorense Clean Sheet 20%
Amadense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dorense Amadense
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 6 3
Losses 17 21
Goals Scored 0.91 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.55 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.21
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 17, 2018 Sergipano
Dorense vs Amadense
0:1
Feb 25, 2017 Sergipano
Amadense vs Dorense
2:0
Feb 4, 2016 Sergipano
Amadense vs Dorense
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dorense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Amadense Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos G. M. d.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dorense 24 / 100
Amadense 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dorense Amadense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Amadense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Amadense conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Dorense found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (33 games).

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Amadense has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Dorense VS Amadense
1.38 Goals Scored 0.67
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.83
88% Over 1.5 67%
75% Over 2.5 67%
38% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Dorense

(Home)
14 Feb
Atletico Gloriense
5 : 0
Dorense
11 Feb
Dorense
1 : 2
Confianca
07 Feb
Sergipe
2 : 1
Dorense
04 Feb
Itabaiana
3 : 0
Dorense
31 Jan
Dorense
1 : 0
Falcon
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Amadense

(Away)
12 Oct
Estanciano EC
2 : 1
Amadense
05 Oct
Amadense
0 : 1
CS Maruinense
02 Oct
Botafogo ASF
3 : 0
Amadense
21 Sept
Amadense
3 : 0
Riachao
17 Sept
Amadense
0 : 1
AD Boquinhense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 7 1 1 15:3 22
2 Itabaiana 9 4 4 1 10:4 16
3 Confianca 9 4 3 2 12:9 15
4 Olimpico EC 9 3 6 0 15:8 15
5 Boca Junior 9 4 2 3 8:8 14
6 Lagarto 9 3 3 3 9:8 12
7 Dorense 9 2 5 2 7:6 11
8 Frei Paulistano 9 3 1 5 6:10 10
9 Amadense 9 1 1 7 5:21 4
10 Socorrense 9 0 2 7 8:18 2
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)