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Dorense vs Guarany SE

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Jerfesson
70' Event
Lucas Santana
90' Event
Pedrinho

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2025 game between Dorense and Guarany SE finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guarany SE.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Dorense
15%
Draws
49%
Guarany SE
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guarany SE

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Guarany SE come out ahead of Dorense on wins alone.
  • Guarany SE are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Sergipano 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Dorense Clean Sheet 13%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dorense Guarany SE
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 0.93 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.99 1.66
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Dorense
3:1
Feb 8, 2025 Sergipano
Dorense vs Guarany SE
1:2
Jan 19, 2019 Sergipano
Dorense vs Guarany SE
0:0
Feb 21, 2016 Sergipano
Dorense vs Guarany SE
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dorense Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Santana
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.76
Avg xA / game 0.49

Guarany SE Compare

Top Goalscorer Jerfesson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pedrinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.51
Avg xA / game 0.92

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dorense 19 / 100
Guarany SE 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dorense Guarany SE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarany SE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Guarany SE conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Dorense found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 1.75 goals per match.

Guarany SE's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Dorense VS Guarany SE
0.86 Goals Scored 0.75
2.57 Goals Conceded 1.13
86% Over 1.5 50%
86% Over 2.5 25%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Dorense

(Home)
14 Feb
Atletico Gloriense
5 : 0
Dorense
11 Feb
Dorense
1 : 2
Confianca
07 Feb
Sergipe
2 : 1
Dorense
04 Feb
Itabaiana
3 : 0
Dorense
31 Jan
Dorense
1 : 0
Falcon
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Guarany SE

(Away)
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 6 2 1 26:8 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 4 0 18:7 19
3 Lagarto 9 5 2 2 20:8 17
4 America de Propria 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 4 1 4 9:19 13
6 Falcon 9 4 0 5 11:15 12
7 Sergipe 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
8 Dorense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
9 Barra SE 9 2 1 6 8:27 7
10 Carmopolis 9 0 3 6 10:16 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)