Sport Picks
Dortmund vs Ath Bilbao
Europe
Champions League 2025/2026 Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund 
Match Events
28'
28'
Svensson D.
Assist: Adeyemi K.
43'
43'
Paredes A.
46'
46'
Sub
Williams I. In: Guruzeta G.
Out: Williams I.
AI Match Summary
The Champions League 2025/2026 game between Dortmund and Ath Bilbao finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dortmund.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
4%
6%
90%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Ath Bilbao
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Dortmund carry the better recent record into this one.
- Ath Bilbao are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 3 times recently and Ath Bilbao have taken 2 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Dortmund Clean Sheet 20%
Ath Bilbao Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Dortmund | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 17 | 12 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 7 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 1.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 1, 2025 Champions League
Dortmund vs Ath Bilbao
4:1
Jul 24, 2021 Club Friendly
Dortmund vs Ath Bilbao
0:2
Aug 9, 2016 Club Friendly
Dortmund vs Ath Bilbao
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Dortmund Compare
Top Goalscorer Svensson D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Chukwuemeka C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Ath Bilbao Compare
Top Goalscorer Guruzeta G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Dortmund 10 / 100
Ath Bilbao 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Dortmund Ath Bilbao
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick BIL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Dortmund's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Ath Bilbao let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.
H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.
Dortmund has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Dortmund VS Ath Bilbao
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Dortmund
(Home) 18 Jul
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen
1 : 3 Dortmund
16 May
Werder Bremen
0 : 2 Dortmund
08 May
Dortmund
3 : 2 Eintracht Frankfurt
03 May
B. Monchengladbach
1 : 0 Dortmund
26 Apr
Dortmund
4 : 0 Freiburg
Page 1 of 6
08 May
Dortmund
3 : 2 Eintracht Frankfurt
26 Apr
Dortmund
4 : 0 Freiburg
11 Apr
Dortmund
0 : 1 Bayer Leverkusen
21 Mar
Dortmund
3 : 2 Hamburger
14 Mar
Dortmund
2 : 0 Augsburg
Page 1 of 3
Ath Bilbao
(Away) 22 Jul
Sestao
0 : 2 Ath Bilbao
18 Jul
Leioa
0 : 11 Ath Bilbao
15 Jul
Derio
0 : 3 Ath Bilbao
23 May
Real Madrid
4 : 2 Ath Bilbao
17 May
Ath Bilbao
1 : 1 Celta Vigo
Page 1 of 6
22 Jul
Sestao
0 : 2 Ath Bilbao
18 Jul
Leioa
0 : 11 Ath Bilbao
15 Jul
Derio
0 : 3 Ath Bilbao
23 May
Real Madrid
4 : 2 Ath Bilbao
13 May
Espanyol
2 : 0 Ath Bilbao
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23:4 | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22:8 | 21 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20:8 | 18 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 17 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22:14 | 16 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:11 | 16 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 16 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:12 | 15 |
| 10 | Inter | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:7 | 15 |
| 11 | PSG | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:11 | 14 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:7 | 14 |
| 13 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 14 | Atl. Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | 13 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 17 | Dortmund | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19:17 | 11 |
| 18 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | 11 |
| 19 | Club Brugge | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | 10 |
| 21 | Monaco | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:14 | 10 |
| 22 | Qarabag Agdam | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:21 | 10 |
| 23 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 24 | Benfica | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:12 | 9 |
| 25 | Marseille | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11:14 | 9 |
| 26 | Pafos | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:11 | 9 |
| 27 | Royale Union SG | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 28 | PSV | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 8 |
| 29 | Ath Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | 8 |
| 30 | Napoli | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | 8 |
| 31 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:21 | 8 |
| 32 | Ajax | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10:21 | 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Prague | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5:19 | 3 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:18 | 1 |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7:22 | 1 |
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)