Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dortmund vs Hamburger

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Guirassy S.
Assist: Karetsas K.
21'
Lokonga A. S.
45' Event
Konstantelias G.
Assist: Beier M.

AI Match Summary

The Bundesliga game between Dortmund and Hamburger finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dortmund.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Dortmund
20%
Draws
33%
Hamburger
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dortmund

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Hamburger haven't matched Dortmund's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Dortmund's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Dortmund have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Dortmund Clean Sheet 16%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dortmund Hamburger
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 19 9
Draws 2 9
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 2.07 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Bundesliga
Dortmund vs Hamburger
2:0
Mar 21, 2026 Bundesliga
Dortmund vs Hamburger
3:2
Nov 8, 2025 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Dortmund
1:1
Feb 10, 2018 Bundesliga
Dortmund vs Hamburger
2:0
Sep 20, 2017 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Dortmund
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dortmund Compare

Top Goalscorer Guirassy S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Konstantelias G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Hamburger Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dortmund 41 / 100
Hamburger 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dortmund Hamburger

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dortmund found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Hamburger's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Dortmund has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Dortmund VS Hamburger
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dortmund

(Home)
01 Sept
HEBC Hamburg
0 : 5
Dortmund
29 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 0
Hamburger
22 Aug
Dortmund
1 : 2
Bayern Munich
15 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 2
AS Roma
09 Aug
Arsenal
2 : 3
Dortmund
Page 1 of 6

Hamburger

(Away)
29 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 0
Hamburger
24 Aug
Verl
0 : 3
Hamburger
15 Aug
Toulouse
1 : 2
Hamburger
08 Aug
Hamburger
2 : 2
Lille
01 Aug
Hamburger
1 : 2
Everton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 1 1 0 0 5:1 3
2 Freiburg 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
3 Augsburg 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
4 RB Leipzig 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
5 Dortmund 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
6 1. FC Koln 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
7 Elversberg 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
8 Union Berlin 1 0 1 0 3:3 1
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 1 0 1 0 3:3 1
10 Mainz 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
11 Paderborn 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
12 Bayer Leverkusen 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
13 Hoffenheim 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
14 Hamburger 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
15 Werder Bremen 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
16 Schalke 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
17 B. Monchengladbach 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
18 VfB Stuttgart 1 0 0 1 1:5 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)