Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dortmund vs Paderborn

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Sat, Sep 12, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dortmund host Paderborn in the Bundesliga. Little to choose between these two on current form. Paderborn have shipped 1.48 goals a game lately, while Dortmund have conceded 1.32 and scored 1.86. Head-to-head, Dortmund have won 2 to Paderborn's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Oct 7, 2021, ending 0:3. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 1.69, favoring Dortmund. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Dortmund
20%
Draws
52%
Paderborn
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paderborn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Dortmund lately — more wins on the board than Paderborn.
  • Win probability leans Paderborn's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Dortmund Clean Sheet 13%
Paderborn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dortmund Paderborn
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 16 14
Draws 2 8
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.86 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2021 Club Friendly
Dortmund vs Paderborn
0:3
Feb 2, 2021 DFB Pokal
Dortmund vs Paderborn
3:2
Aug 28, 2020 Club Friendly
Dortmund vs Paderborn
1:1
May 31, 2020 Bundesliga
Paderborn vs Dortmund
1:6
Nov 22, 2019 Bundesliga
Dortmund vs Paderborn
3:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dortmund 22 / 100
Paderborn 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dortmund Paderborn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paderborn Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dortmund found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.

Paderborn's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Dortmund has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Dortmund VS Paderborn
1.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Dortmund

(Home)
22 Aug
Dortmund
1 : 2
Bayern Munich
15 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 2
AS Roma
09 Aug
Arsenal
2 : 3
Dortmund
01 Aug
FC Tokyo
0 : 1
Dortmund
29 Jul
Cerezo Osaka
1 : 0
Dortmund
Page 1 of 6

Paderborn

(Away)
23 Aug
Phonix Lubeck
2 : 4
Paderborn
08 Aug
Werder Bremen
2 : 2
Paderborn
01 Aug
VfL Osnabruck
0 : 2
Paderborn
17 Jul
Paderborn
3 : 1
Okayama
25 May
Paderborn
2 : 1
Wolfsburg
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Union Berlin 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Bayern Munich 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Bayer Leverkusen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Werder Bremen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Schalke 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Hamburger 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Dortmund 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 B. Monchengladbach 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Hoffenheim 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 1. FC Koln 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Mainz 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Augsburg 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Paderborn 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 VfB Stuttgart 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Elversberg 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 RB Leipzig 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)