Sport Picks

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Dundalk vs Galway United

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Oriel Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dundalk play Galway United in the Premier Division. It looks like a close match. Recently, Dundalk averaged 1.78 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. Galway United averaged 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded. In past meetings, Dundalk won 2, Galway United won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 12, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Dundalk and 1.44 for Galway United. This points to a Dundalk double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Dundalk
31%
Draws
25%
Galway United
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Dundalk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Dundalk picked up more points recently compared to Galway United.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 16%
Galway United Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dundalk Galway United
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 12 7
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.78 1.22
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.78
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 12, 2026 Premier Division
Galway United vs Dundalk
0:1
Apr 17, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Galway United
2:1
Mar 6, 2026 Premier Division
Galway United vs Dundalk
2:2
Oct 4, 2024 Premier Division
Galway United vs Dundalk
1:1
Aug 2, 2024 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Galway United
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer McDaid D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Galway United Compare

Top Goalscorer Walsh S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dundalk 43 / 100
Galway United 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dundalk Galway United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dundalk or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dundalk attacking → ← attacking Galway United

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dundalk scored in 93% of their last 27 games.

Galway United let in goals in 93% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Dundalk went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Galway United lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 28
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shamrock Rovers25155540:2250
2Bohemians25127640:2743
3St. Patricks23125638:1941
4Dundalk2398637:3435
5Shelbourne24810635:3534
6Derry City25611832:3129
7Galway United22661029:3724
8Drogheda23571127:4022
9Waterford23481132:4620
10Sligo Rovers23551318:3720