Sport Picks

France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade Marcel Tribut

Dunkerque

1 - 1

Bastia

Our Tip

Match Events

29'

Roncaglia A.

Assist: Boutrah A.

40'

Bardeli E.

Assist: Linguet A.

57'

Guevara J.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Dunkerque

39%

Draws

31%

Bastia

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Dunkerque have won more games recently than Bastia.
39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%

Dunkerque Clean Sheet 68%

Bastia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Dunkerque	Bastia
Matches Played	26	29
Wins	9	8
Draws	5	9
Losses	12	12
Goals Scored	1.25	1.57
Goals Conceded	1.63	1.86
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 Ligue 2

Dunkerque vs Bastia

Possession: 53% - 41% Cards: 3 - 4

1:1

Oct 3, 2025 Ligue 2

Bastia vs Dunkerque

Possession: 48% - 52% Cards: 1 - 2

0:0

Mar 28, 2025 Ligue 2

Bastia vs Dunkerque

Possession: 45% - 52% Cards: 3 - 2

2:0

Sep 24, 2024 Ligue 2

Dunkerque vs Bastia

Possession: 43% - 51% Cards: 2 - 1

2:1

Apr 6, 2024 Ligue 2

Bastia vs Dunkerque

Possession: 45% - 53% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dunkerque Compare

Top Goalscorer Bardeli E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Bastia Compare

Top Goalscorer Roncaglia A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.43

Avg xA / game 0.87

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dunkerque 41 / 100

Bastia 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Dunkerque Bastia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DUN Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dunkerque scored in 73% of their last 26 games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Bastia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Solid form: Dunkerque remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Dunkerque VS Bastia

1.25 Goals Scored 1.57

1.63 Goals Conceded 1.86

75% Over 1.5 86%

38% Over 2.5 29%

25% Over 3.5 29%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Troyes	34	20	7	7	60:33	67
2	Le Mans	34	16	14	4	50:31	62
3	St Etienne	34	18	6	10	59:38	60
4	Red Star	34	16	10	8	45:37	58
5	Rodez	34	15	13	6	45:39	58
6	Reims	34	14	14	6	53:35	56
7	Annecy	34	15	7	12	49:39	52
8	Montpellier	34	14	9	11	41:31	51
9	Pau	34	12	9	13	48:62	45
10	Dunkerque	34	11	10	13	53:45	43
11	Guingamp	34	10	10	14	42:49	40
12	Grenoble	34	8	15	11	33:39	39
13	Clermont	34	9	10	15	38:44	37
14	Nancy	34	9	10	15	35:52	37
15	Boulogne	34	9	9	16	34:49	36
16	Laval	34	6	14	14	30:48	32
17	Bastia	34	5	13	16	23:39	28
18	Amiens SC	34	6	6	22	37:65	24
19	AC Ajaccio	0	0	0	0	0:0	0