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Duque de Caxias vs Niteroiense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1
Sat, Sep 26, 2026
VS
05:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Duque de Caxias host Niteroiense in the Carioca B1. This one's hard to separate. Duque de Caxias have averaged 0.91 scored and 1.06 conceded recently, against Niteroiense's 1.59 scored and 1.17 conceded. Head-to-head, Duque de Caxias have won 0 to Niteroiense's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Nov 5, 2025, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 0.88 vs 1.25, favoring Niteroiense. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Duque de Caxias
20%
Draws
44%
Niteroiense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Niteroiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Niteroiense have won more games recently than Duque de Caxias.
  • Model gives Niteroiense a 44% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Duque de Caxias Clean Sheet 19%
Niteroiense Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Duque de Caxias Niteroiense
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 7 9
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 0.91 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 5, 2025 Carioca B1
Niteroiense vs Duque de Caxias
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Duque de Caxias 24 / 100
Niteroiense 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Duque de Caxias Niteroiense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Niteroiense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Niteroiense conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Duque de Caxias remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Duque de Caxias scored in 56% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 0.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Duque de Caxias VS Niteroiense
1 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Duque de Caxias

(Home)
19 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 1
Duque de Caxias
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0
Duque de Caxias
17 Jun
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2
Olaria
Page 1 of 7

Niteroiense

(Away)
19 Sept
Niteroiense
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
12 Sept
Goncalense
1 : 1
Niteroiense
05 Sept
Niteroiense
2 : 0
Serrano FC
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Niteroiense
0 : 0
Duque de Caxias
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Duque de Caxias 3 3 0 0 8:1 9
2 Artsul 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
3 Niteroiense 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
4 Campo Grande 3 2 0 1 5:4 6
5 Goncalense 3 1 2 0 3:1 5
6 Goytacaz 3 1 1 1 1:2 4
7 Serrano FC 3 1 1 1 1:2 4
8 Macae 3 1 0 2 3:3 3
9 Sao Cristovao 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
10 Nova Cidade 3 0 1 2 2:6 1
11 AA Carapebus 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
12 Audax RJ 3 0 0 3 0:5 0
Promotion - Carioca B1 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2027 (Main)