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Ecuador W vs Colombia W Prediction & H2H Stats

South America South America

CONMEBOL Nations League Women Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Santos L.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Burgos Cedeno E. E. In: Arias E.
Out: Burgos Cedeno E. E.
46'
Sub
Pico F. In: Cedeno S.
Out: Pico F.

AI Match Summary

The CONMEBOL Nations League Women game between Ecuador W and Colombia W finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Colombia W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Ecuador W
15%
Draws
48%
Colombia W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Colombia W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Colombia W come out ahead of Ecuador W on wins alone.
  • Model gives Colombia W a 48% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Colombia W have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Ecuador W Clean Sheet 18%
Colombia W Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ecuador W Colombia W
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 9 15
Draws 7 7
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.36 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 28, 2025 CONMEBOL Nations League Women
Ecuador W vs Colombia W
1:2
Jul 13, 2024 Friendly International Women
Colombia W vs Ecuador W
1:2
Jul 18, 2022 Copa América Women
Ecuador W vs Colombia W
1:2
Apr 13, 2021 Friendly International Women
Ecuador W vs Colombia W
0:4
Apr 10, 2021 Friendly International Women
Ecuador W vs Colombia W
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ecuador W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Colombia W Compare

Top Goalscorer Montoya D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.75

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ecuador W 12 / 100
Colombia W 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ecuador W Colombia W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Colombia W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ecuador W found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Colombia W let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Ecuador W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ecuador W VS Colombia W
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.33 Goals Conceded 1.13
67% Over 1.5 50%
33% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ecuador W

(Home)
09 Jun
Ecuador W
0 : 1
Argentina W
05 Jun
Chile W
1 : 2
Ecuador W
18 Apr
Ecuador W
1 : 0
Peru W
10 Apr
Paraguay W
2 : 0
Ecuador W
07 Mar
Ecuador W
1 : 1
Uruguay W
Page 1 of 6

Colombia W

(Away)
07 Aug
Colombia W
1 : 2
Mexico W
04 Aug
Venezuela W
2 : 3
Colombia W
02 Aug
Puerto Rico W
0 : 3
Colombia W
31 Jul
Colombia W
0 : 1
Mexico W
29 Jul
Jamaica W
0 : 5
Colombia W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Colombia W 8 6 2 0 16:7 20
2 Argentina W 8 5 3 0 18:5 18
3 Venezuela W 8 3 3 2 19:6 12
4 Ecuador W 8 3 2 3 8:6 11
5 Peru W 8 3 2 3 12:15 11
6 Paraguay W 8 3 1 4 17:11 10
7 Chile W 8 3 1 4 11:9 10
8 Uruguay W 8 1 3 4 7:11 6
9 Bolivia W 8 0 1 7 2:40 1
Promotion - World Cup Women (Main)
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion)