Sport Picks

Stadium Background

EL Nacional vs Cumbaya

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Velasco L.

AI Match Summary

Cumbaya in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cumbaya.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
EL Nacional
6%
Draws
90%
Cumbaya
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Cumbaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cumbaya lately — more wins on the board than EL Nacional.
  • Cumbaya are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 15%
Cumbaya Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EL Nacional Cumbaya
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 4 9
Draws 6 12
Losses 20 8
Goals Scored 0.38 1
Goals Conceded 2.13 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 8, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Cumbaya
0:1
Apr 24, 2026 Serie B
Cumbaya vs EL Nacional
2:1
Sep 15, 2024 Liga Pro
EL Nacional vs Cumbaya
2:1
Mar 30, 2024 Liga Pro
Cumbaya vs EL Nacional
1:0
Aug 26, 2023 Liga Pro
EL Nacional vs Cumbaya
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EL Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Cumbaya Compare

Top Goalscorer Velasco L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EL Nacional 10 / 100
Cumbaya 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EL Nacional Cumbaya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CUM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

EL Nacional found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Cumbaya's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Solid form: EL Nacional remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

EL Nacional VS Cumbaya
0.38 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

EL Nacional

(Home)
24 Jul
EL Nacional
0 : 0
Gualaceo
15 Jul
Vinotinto
2 : 1
EL Nacional
08 Jul
EL Nacional
0 : 1
Cumbaya
02 Jul
Atletico FC
3 : 0
EL Nacional
11 Jun
EL Nacional
0 : 0
Dep. Santo Domingo
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Cumbaya

(Away)
22 Jul
San Antonio
0 : 0
Cumbaya
16 Jul
Cumbaya
0 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
08 Jul
EL Nacional
0 : 1
Cumbaya
02 Jul
Cumbaya
4 : 0
22 de Julio
10 Jun
Gualaceo
1 : 0
Cumbaya
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nueve de Octubre1897220:1134
2Independiente Juniors1887320:1131
3Atletico FC18710121:1331
4CD Cuenca Juniors1886419:1830
5Vinotinto1875623:1626
6Cumbaya1858519:1623
7LDU Portoviejo1864815:2122
8San Antonio1849520:2021
9Gualaceo1867513:1119
10Dep. Santo Domingo1857613:1319
1122 de Julio1843119:239
12EL Nacional18051310:292
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Serie B (Relegation Group)