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Eldense vs Marbella

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat, Elda
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Match Events

1' Event
Bustillo M.
17' Event
Dioni
23'
Cambra J.

AI Match Summary

The Primera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 game between Eldense and Marbella finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Eldense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Eldense
30%
Draws
34%
Marbella
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Eldense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Eldense come out ahead of Marbella on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Eldense taking it.
  • Regular Primera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Eldense Clean Sheet 16%
Marbella Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Eldense Marbella
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 17 8
Draws 4 2
Losses 9 21
Goals Scored 1.5 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 2
Eldense vs Marbella
3:1
Oct 11, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 2
Marbella vs Eldense
1:0
May 24, 2014 Tercera Division - Play Offs
Marbella vs Eldense
3:1
May 18, 2014 Tercera Division - Play Offs
Eldense vs Marbella
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Eldense Compare

Top Goalscorer Bustillo M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Dioni
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Marbella Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Eldense 36 / 100
Marbella 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Eldense Marbella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Eldense scored in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Marbella's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Marbella lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Eldense VS Marbella
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Eldense

(Home)
04 Aug
Eldense
1 : 3
Villarreal B
01 Aug
Murcia
2 : 1
Eldense
25 Jul
Eldense
3 : 1
Al Ettifaq FC
22 Jul
Valencia
3 : 0
Eldense
17 Jul
Eldense
1 : 2
Millwall
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Marbella

(Away)
22 May
Marbella
3 : 1
Teruel
16 May
Alcorcon
6 : 2
Marbella
10 May
Marbella
0 : 1
Torremolinos
03 May
Eldense
3 : 1
Marbella
26 Apr
Marbella
0 : 1
Sabadell
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Eldense 38 19 12 7 57:39 69
2 Sabadell 38 18 14 6 53:27 68
3 Atl. Madrid B 38 19 10 9 64:44 67
4 Villarreal B 38 16 15 7 54:32 63
5 CE Europa 38 16 12 10 55:50 60
6 FC Cartagena SAD 38 15 12 11 37:38 57
7 Antequera 38 16 8 14 47:44 56
8 Algeciras 38 15 10 13 40:41 55
9 Hercules 38 14 12 12 43:41 54
10 Murcia 38 14 10 14 43:40 52
11 Alcorcon 38 12 15 11 44:38 51
12 UD Ibiza 38 13 11 14 44:38 50
13 Teruel 38 12 13 13 27:33 49
14 Gimnastic de Tarragona 38 13 8 17 40:49 47
15 Torremolinos 38 11 13 14 45:51 46
16 Betis B 38 12 9 17 48:59 45
17 Tarazona 38 11 12 15 31:40 45
18 Marbella 38 9 7 22 36:55 34
19 Sanluqueno 38 7 10 21 27:53 31
20 Sevilla B 38 5 13 20 21:44 28
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)