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Elva vs Tartu JK Welco

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Nike Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Elva play Tartu JK Welco in the Esiliiga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Elva averaged 1.9 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Tartu JK Welco averaged 2.69 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. In past meetings, Elva won 1, Tartu JK Welco won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 1, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Elva and 2.13 for Tartu JK Welco. This points to a Tartu JK Welco double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Elva
17%
Draws
49%
Tartu JK Welco
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Tartu JK Welco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Elva picked up more points recently compared to Tartu JK Welco.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 2.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 47%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Elva Clean Sheet 10%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 85%
Second Half Goal 89%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elva Tartu JK Welco
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 17
Draws 3 6
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.9 2.69
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 1, 2026 Esiliiga
Elva vs Tartu JK Welco
0:2
Apr 27, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Elva
3:3
Oct 27, 2025 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Elva
3:2
Aug 4, 2025 Esiliiga
Elva vs Tartu JK Welco
1:2
Jun 14, 2025 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Elva
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Elva Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Top Goalscorer Viira S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elva 33 / 100
Tartu JK Welco 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elva Tartu JK Welco

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tartu JK Welco or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.4%
1.39
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Elva attacking → ← attacking Tartu JK Welco

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elva scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Tartu JK Welco let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Elva went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Tartu JK Welco lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 57
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.75
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tartu JK Welco18133254:2342
2Viimsi JK1794428:1431
3Flora Tallinn U211793544:3430
4Elva1873831:3224
5Maardu Linnameeskond1865726:3823
6Tallinna Kalev1864835:3622
7Levadia U2118701134:3321
8Nomme Utd U211754834:4119
9Kalju U211753928:4218
10FC Tallinn1845925:4617