Sport Picks
Match Events
86'
86'
Lazaar J.
(Penalty)
90'
90'
Jebiniani M.
AI Match Summary
The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between EM Mahdia and Sporting Ben Arous finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Sporting Ben Arous's 1.14 goals per match outpaces what EM Mahdia have produced (0.87).
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 9%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
EM Mahdia Clean Sheet 28%
Sporting Ben Arous Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | EM Mahdia | Sporting Ben Arous |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 8 | 8 |
| Draws | 10 | 10 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.87 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 0.82 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.38 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 1, 2026 Ligue 2
EM Mahdia vs Sporting Ben Arous
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 Ligue 2
Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia
2:2
May 20, 2023 Ligue 2
Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia
2:0
Jan 4, 2023 Ligue 2
EM Mahdia vs Sporting Ben Arous
2:0
Jan 23, 2022 Tunisia Cup
Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
EM Mahdia Compare
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19
Sporting Ben Arous Compare
Top Goalscorer Jebiniani M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
EM Mahdia 34 / 100
Sporting Ben Arous 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
EM Mahdia Sporting Ben Arous
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sporting Ben Arous Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sporting Ben Arous has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.
Games between these two average 2.20 goals.
Sporting Ben Arous's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
EM Mahdia's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
EM Mahdia VS Sporting Ben Arous
0.13 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 25%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
EM Mahdia
(Home) 10 Sept
EM Mahdia
3 : 0 Ksour Essef
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3 Kerkennah
01 May
Menzel Bourguiba
1 : 0 EM Mahdia
27 Apr
EM Mahdia
0 : 1 US Tataouine
18 Apr
Megrine
0 : 0 EM Mahdia
Page 1 of 6
10 Sept
EM Mahdia
3 : 0 Ksour Essef
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3 Kerkennah
27 Apr
EM Mahdia
0 : 1 US Tataouine
13 Apr
EM Mahdia
1 : 1 Chebba
29 Mar
EM Mahdia
0 : 0 Sfax Railways
Page 1 of 3
Sporting Ben Arous
(Away) 11 May
Sporting Ben Arous
6 : 0 Menzel Bourguiba
01 May
US Tataouine
1 : 0 Sporting Ben Arous
27 Apr
Sporting Ben Arous
1 : 1 Megrine
18 Apr
Chebba
1 : 0 Sporting Ben Arous
13 Apr
Sporting Ben Arous
0 : 1 AS Agareb
Page 1 of 6
01 May
US Tataouine
1 : 0 Sporting Ben Arous
18 Apr
Chebba
1 : 0 Sporting Ben Arous
04 Apr
Sfax Railways
0 : 2 Sporting Ben Arous
28 Feb
Bousalem
0 : 0 Sporting Ben Arous
01 Feb
EM Mahdia
1 : 1 Sporting Ben Arous
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamam-Sousse | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 40:19 | 51 |
| 2 | Hammam-Lif | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 36:14 | 51 |
| 3 | US Tataouine | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 34:16 | 51 |
| 4 | Sfax Railways | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 35:26 | 46 |
| 5 | Sporting Ben Arous | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 30:19 | 34 |
| 6 | Kerkennah | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 27:27 | 34 |
| 7 | Chebba | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33:37 | 33 |
| 8 | Msaken | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 23:28 | 31 |
| 9 | BS Bouhajla | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 21:23 | 30 |
| 10 | Megrine | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 25:35 | 30 |
| 11 | EM Mahdia | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 18:25 | 28 |
| 12 | AS Agareb | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 22:33 | 28 |
| 13 | Bousalem | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 19:34 | 25 |
| 14 | Menzel Bourguiba | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 15:42 | 17 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PS Sakiet Eddaier | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 54:15 | 56 |
| 2 | Stade Gabesien | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 43:16 | 53 |
| 3 | Kasserine | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 31:18 | 47 |
| 4 | Jendouba Sport | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 34:24 | 38 |
| 5 | Korba | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 21:20 | 37 |
| 6 | Bouchamma | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35:30 | 35 |
| 7 | Gafsa | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 28:31 | 34 |
| 8 | Ariana | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ksour Essef | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 40:34 | 32 |
| 10 | Redeyef | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27:39 | 32 |
| 11 | Kalaa | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 28:44 | 30 |
| 12 | Moknine | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29:36 | 29 |
| 13 | Djelma | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 16:33 | 26 |
| 14 | Sidi Bouzid | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17:57 | 14 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
